TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Kamil Novak vs Milan Kolar 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:25 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeKamil Novak to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Novak above · Milan Kolar below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 54 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Kamil Novak at 54.7%
54 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Novak 8–3 Milan Kolar Milan Kolar has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Novak beat Kolar 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:25What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kolar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Novak
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1390 vs Kolar 1499
Kolar
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 40% vs Kolar 60%
Kolar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 20% vs Kolar 50%
Kolar
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak +2 · Kolar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Novak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.83 / Kolar 1.83
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kolar)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13212614
Novak1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kolar1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak8wins
AwayKolar2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak100%6 of 6
AwayKolar50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak6Kolar4n = 10Novak took 6 of 10
S2Novak8Kolar2n = 10Novak took 8 of 10
S3Novak6Kolar4n = 10Novak took 6 of 10
S4Novak5Kolar1n = 6Novak took 5 of 6
S5Novak2Kolar1n = 3Novak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakKolarN − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.834.8+3.0per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 278 vs 400 / 80347.5%49.8%132 / 278 vs 400 / 803Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.83/Kolar 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 15:30K. Novak351111133M. Kolar2348110
LSep 25 · 18:00K. Novak30112891M. Kolar43111011113
WOct 12 · 15:30K. Novak44101111123M. Kolar351267101
WOct 11 · 01:00K. Novak331111113M. Kolar208660
WOct 5 · 17:00K. Novak4012116113M. Kolar371091171
WOct 5 · 14:00K. Novak44114414113M. Kolar51811111292
WAug 3 · 21:01K. Novak47941112113M. Kolar44111181042
LAug 3 · 19:30K. Novak3861171132M. Kolar51119119113
WAug 2 · 10:00K. Novak341112113M. Kolar2491050
WApr 28 · 23:30K. Novak331111113M. Kolar205960
K. Novak10
WSep 28 · 16:00K. Novak2.50111110113L. Stacho1.50661281WSep 28 · 15:30M. Kolar1.4048110K. Novak2.751111133LSep 28 · 14:00K. Novak1.831011531J. Dedek1.8312911113LSep 25 · 21:09V. Postelt1.721211113K. Novak2.0010590LSep 25 · 20:00K. Novak3.401015111192V. Postelt1.301213136113LSep 25 · 19:30J. Dedek2.10121211113K. Novak1.671410491LSep 25 · 18:00K. Novak1.61112891M. Kolar2.20111011113LSep 19 · 16:59P. Budinsky1.4091111123K. Novak2.751138101LSep 19 · 16:30P. Budinsky1.361111113K. Novak3.008750LSep 19 · 15:30K. Novak2.2559111282J. Trefny1.571111910113
M. Kolar10
WSep 28 · 16:30J. Dedek2.103660M. Kolar1.671111113LSep 28 · 15:30M. Kolar1.4048110K. Novak2.751111133WSep 28 · 14:30L. Stacho2.25811111362M. Kolar1.571171311113LSep 28 · 13:30J. Stolfa1.4371111113M. Kolar2.60115681WSep 28 · 12:30L. Stacho1.8310570M. Kolar1.831211113LSep 28 · 11:30M. Kolar2.758111291J. Stolfa1.4011914103WSep 28 · 10:30J. Trefny1.617960M. Kolar2.201111113WSep 27 · 02:00M. Kolar1.7391211113J. Dedek2.001110691LSep 27 · 01:00M. Kolar2.63711491T. Varnuska1.4411511113WSep 25 · 18:00K. Novak1.61112891M. Kolar2.20111011113
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