TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matus Zelinka vs David Gasparovic 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11512106111513––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · David Gasparovic below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 83 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 4–1 David Gasparovic David Gasparovic has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Zelinka beat Gasparovic 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:42What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gasparovic
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Zelinka
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1774 vs Gasparovic 1765
Zelinka
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 60% vs Gasparovic 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 60% vs Gasparovic 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka +3 · Gasparovic +1
Zelinka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelinka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 1.83 / Gasparovic 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zelinka)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13210978
Zelinka1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Gasparovic1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeZelinka4wins
AwayGasparovic1wins
4 of 5 to a deciderZelinka leads 4–1, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGasparovic33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka2Gasparovic3n = 5Gasparovic took 3 of 5
S2Zelinka4Gasparovic1n = 5Zelinka took 4 of 5
S3Zelinka3Gasparovic2n = 5Zelinka took 3 of 5
S4Zelinka2Gasparovic3n = 5Gasparovic took 3 of 5
S5Zelinka3Gasparovic1n = 4Zelinka took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricZelinkaGasparovicZ − GBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match49.843.2+6.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaGasparovicBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 406 vs 112 / 18853.7%59.6%218 / 406 vs 112 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaZelinka 1.83/Gasparovic 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 28 · 10:15M. Zelinka46101111143D. Gasparovic371276121
WSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka551171312123D. Gasparovic559111114102
LAug 28 · 13:15M. Zelinka43311131152D. Gasparovic49115157113
WApr 19 · 07:15M. Zelinka511111612113D. Gasparovic3941111492
WJan 16 · 19:45M. Zelinka541211119113D. Gasparovic3614421152
M. Zelinka10
WSep 28 · 11:45M. Zelinka1.8311811113J. Krames Sr1.83811791WSep 28 · 10:15D. Gasparovic1.801276121M. Zelinka1.91101111143WSep 28 · 09:45L. Veigl2.3812101181M. Zelinka1.5314129113LSep 27 · 08:19M. Kocvara2.381111113M. Zelinka1.539780LSep 27 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.381111123M. Zelinka1.5395100WSep 27 · 06:45M. Zelinka1.61811711113M. Kocvara2.2011511582LSep 27 · 05:45M. Zelinka1.806570L. Heinzl1.911111113LSep 26 · 12:44M. Zelinka2.2598111162L. Dobias1.5711113893WSep 26 · 11:45L. Dobias1.83881181M. Zelinka1.8311114113WSep 26 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.9194111122M. Zelinka1.80111194113
D. Gasparovic10
WSep 28 · 11:15D. Gasparovic1.30591111113L. Veigl3.4011119992LSep 28 · 10:15D. Gasparovic1.801276121M. Zelinka1.91101111143WSep 28 · 09:15D. Gasparovic1.731111113J. Krames Sr2.007880WSep 27 · 16:20J. Chalupa1.67116791D. Gasparovic2.1091111113LSep 27 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.679101181J. Krames Sr2.1011127113LSep 27 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.9154111172J. Chalupa1.8011116993LSep 27 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.7391191292L. Heinzl2.001141110113WSep 13 · 08:54L. Svoboda2.7511850D. Gasparovic1.401311113WSep 13 · 07:45D. Gasparovic1.8013911113L. Svoboda1.911111821WSep 13 · 06:15O. Kaderabek1.918580D. Gasparovic1.801111113
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