TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Machelski vs Jacek Oracz 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119115911911118
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
119115911911118
H2H Michal Machelski 7–41 Jacek Oracz Michal Machelski has won 7 of their 48 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Oracz beat Machelski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.48 / Oracz 1.48
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Oracz)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13204017
Machelski2.48
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 116 of 350
Down 0–1, comes back20% 40 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 120
Oracz1.48
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite72% won 301 of 419
Up 2–0, closes it98% 186 of 189
Up 1–0, closes it88% 245 of 280
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski2wins
AwayOracz8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOracz100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Machelski3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Machelski6Oracz4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S4Machelski1Oracz7n = 8Oracz took 7 of 8
S5Machelski2Oracz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiOraczM − OBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.541.8−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 1098 vs 654 / 90137.1%72.6%407 / 1098 vs 654 / 901Avg sets wonper match1.72.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczMachelski 2.48/Oracz 1.48
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 17:35M. Machelski33891151J. Oracz3911116113
WAug 17 · 00:35M. Machelski551191113113J. Oracz4691151562
LAug 16 · 18:30M. Machelski4799111172J. Oracz47111159113
LJul 25 · 22:25M. Machelski33671191J. Oracz4111118113
WJul 25 · 20:00M. Machelski49118118113J. Oracz4261151192
LJul 12 · 01:10M. Machelski34611981J. Oracz3911611113
LJul 11 · 19:10M. Machelski2225150J. Oracz391111173
LJun 17 · 23:20M. Machelski501011118102J. Oracz50129611123
LJun 17 · 17:20M. Machelski31611861J. Oracz4211911113
LJun 13 · 22:25M. Machelski215790J. Oracz331111113
M. Machelski10
LSep 26 · 21:35M. Machelski3.306750A. Zmijewski1.271111113LSep 26 · 20:00M. Machelski3.50611371A. Fomin1.2611711113LSep 26 · 18:45M. Machelski2.3769120G. Mucha1.521111143LSep 26 · 17:35M. Machelski4.75891151J. Oracz1.1411116113LSep 26 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.201111113M. Machelski3.909350LSep 26 · 15:35M. Machelski2.10115551A. Zmijewski1.6591111113LSep 22 · 02:45M. Machelski1.903890A. Staniczek1.801111113LSep 22 · 01:10M. Machelski3.40117681M. Warzecha1.2891111113WSep 22 · 00:00M. Machelski2.20113911113J. Michalik1.5781111982LSep 21 · 22:25M. Machelski2.509680J. Cyndera1.461111113
J. Oracz10
WSep 26 · 21:10A. Fomin2.308590J. Oracz1.551111113WSep 26 · 20:20G. Mucha3.009670J. Oracz1.361111113WSep 26 · 19:35A. Zmijewski3.10981161J. Oracz1.3211117113WSep 26 · 17:35M. Machelski4.75891151J. Oracz1.1411116113WSep 26 · 16:50A. Fomin2.404990J. Oracz1.441111113LSep 26 · 15:10C. Pawlik2.00141147113J. Oracz1.71129111182WSep 20 · 02:35J. Oracz1.281111113G. Mucha3.508470WSep 20 · 01:00J. Oracz1.83117118113T. Kocik1.8391191182WSep 19 · 23:45J. Oracz1.131115113D. Maszczynski5.5081380WSep 19 · 22:10J. Oracz1.281111123P. Gesiarz3.5092100
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