Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Andrzej Szurgot 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite Series

Played Sep 26Finished

Kacper Kwiatkowski

Home

1.25

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

711115611119611

Andrzej Szurgot

Away

3.75

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:19 and never touched — 77.8% is still 77.8%

Graded at full time

Kacper Kwiatkowski to win

77.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Andrzej Szurgot below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 11-9

Set 5 · 6-11

Point 88 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 77.8%

88 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 13:19

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.25 (75%)

Kwiatkowski

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Kwiatkowski 1395 vs Szurgot 1049

Kwiatkowski

Wrong

both rated, 346 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kwiatkowski 40% vs Szurgot 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kwiatkowski 40% vs Szurgot 20%

Kwiatkowski

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kwiatkowski -2 · Szurgot +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Kwiatkowski)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Szurgot form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.25 / Szurgot 3.75

Signal prob.78% / 22%

Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp

TT Elite Series · #13200318

Kwiatkowski1.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite56% won 48 of 86

Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24

Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48

Szurgot3.75

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog15% won 14 of 91

Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 69

Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricKwiatkowskiSzurgotBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 303 vs 20 / 11143.9%18%133 / 303 vs 20 / 111Avg sets wonper match1.91.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.030.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Kwiatkowski

Kwiatkowski 1.25/Szurgot 3.75

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

77.8%

Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Szurgot won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

K. Kwiatkowski10