TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Kurek vs Mariusz Baron 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
71110121113––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:55 and never touched — 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
64 points played in total.
Set by set
71110121113––––
H2H Pawel Kurek 16–4 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 4 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:55What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-4 in 20
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1362 vs Baron 1317
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Baron 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 40% vs Baron 60%
Baron
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +1 · Baron +3
Baron
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.66 / Baron 2.05
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kurek)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13199635
Kurek1.66
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 24)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 230 of 355
Up 2–0, closes it95% 108 of 114
Up 1–0, closes it83% 159 of 191
Baron2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 26)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 190 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back25% 65 of 257
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek7wins
AwayBaron3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek87.5%7 of 8
AwayBaronn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek8Baron2n = 10Kurek took 8 of 10
S2Kurek5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurek6Baron4n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S4Kurek3Baron3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekBaronK − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match34.232.0+2.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 873 vs 874 / 182950.4%47.8%440 / 873 vs 874 / 1829Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.66/Baron 2.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 01:30P. Kurek4011711113M. Baron27711631
WSep 21 · 19:55P. Kurek3811114123M. Baron318211101
LSep 21 · 01:10P. Kurek187560M. Baron331111113
WSep 20 · 17:30P. Kurek44115116113M. Baron4681191172
LSep 7 · 01:55P. Kurek325111151M. Baron4311813113
WSep 6 · 19:55P. Kurek331111113M. Baron184680
WAug 14 · 23:20P. Kurek3811511113M. Baron33711781
WAug 14 · 17:20P. Kurek331111113M. Baron258980
WAug 3 · 04:20P. Kurek341112113M. Baron2491050
LAug 2 · 18:45P. Kurek32117951M. Baron4071111113
P. Kurek10
WSep 27 · 18:45P. Kurek1.701191314113O. Vincenec2.05711111672WSep 24 · 16:20W. Glanowski2.858580P. Kurek1.361111113LSep 24 · 15:30J. Pruszkowski1.8811312123P. Kurek1.8351110101WSep 24 · 14:45P. Kurek1.6011117113P. Slosarczyk2.15671181LSep 24 · 13:10P. Kurek3.00115861P. Gumulinski1.3251111113WSep 24 · 12:20S. Juzek2.1012811382P. Kurek1.651011811113LSep 24 · 11:05P. Kurek2.411770P. Slosarczyk1.511111113LSep 24 · 09:30P. Kurek2.3084100J. Pruszkowski1.521111123WSep 24 · 08:20P. Kurek1.551111173S. Juzek2.2586150LSep 24 · 06:45P. Kurek1.36681171W. Glanowski2.8011116113
M. Baron10
WSep 26 · 02:35O. Vincenec1.801091181M. Baron1.9112118113WSep 26 · 01:25M. Baron2.2511911113L. Oracz1.57711581WSep 26 · 00:10O. Sokolowski1.80611671M. Baron1.9111611113LSep 25 · 22:55R. Szymik1.4011116113M. Baron2.75861151LSep 25 · 21:20K. Juszczyk1.73199117123M. Baron2.001711811102WSep 25 · 20:05M. Baron2.00611119113L. Oracz1.7311571182LSep 25 · 18:30K. Juszczyk1.6711129113M. Baron2.109101181LSep 25 · 17:45O. Sokolowski1.73411911113M. Baron2.0011611872WSep 25 · 16:55M. Baron1.91811119113O. Vincenec1.8011741192WSep 25 · 15:50M. Baron1.571111113W. Jozala2.256380
Upcoming Matches
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M. Baron
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