TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Fedoryshyn vs Serhii Chuhai 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11131012511––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:15 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Fedoryshyn to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Fedoryshyn above · Serhii Chuhai below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 62 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Ivan Fedoryshyn at 65.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fedoryshyn 152–95 Serhii Chuhai Serhii Chuhai has won 95 of their 247 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Fedoryshyn beat Chuhai 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
152-95 in 247
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
gap of 57 in 247, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fedoryshyn 1874 vs Chuhai 1792
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fedoryshyn 80% vs Chuhai 40%
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fedoryshyn 70% vs Chuhai 50%
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fedoryshyn +1 · Chuhai +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Fedoryshyn) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fedoryshyn form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFedoryshyn 1.57 / Chuhai 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Fedoryshyn)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13191139
Fedoryshyn1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 187 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it98% 115 of 118
Up 1–0, closes it83% 155 of 187
Chuhai2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 74 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFedoryshyn5wins
AwayChuhai5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFedoryshyn71.4%5 of 7
AwayChuhai100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fedoryshyn7Chuhai3n = 10Fedoryshyn took 7 of 10
S2Fedoryshyn4Chuhai6n = 10Chuhai took 6 of 10
S3Fedoryshyn8Chuhai2n = 10Fedoryshyn took 8 of 10
S4Fedoryshyn2Chuhai5n = 7Chuhai took 5 of 7
S5Fedoryshyn1Chuhai2n = 3Chuhai took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFedoryshynChuhaiF − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.936.4−0.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFedoryshynChuhaiBasisWin rate · lifetime549 / 832 vs 484 / 95066%51%549 / 832 vs 484 / 950Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FedoryshynFedoryshyn 1.57/Chuhai 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Fedoryshyn · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chuhai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 13:00I. Fedoryshyn331111113S. Chuhai248880
LSep 24 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn3764121142S. Chuhai521111109113
WSep 17 · 17:00I. Fedoryshyn3611311113S. Chuhai31611951
LSep 17 · 12:00I. Fedoryshyn34117791S. Chuhai4181111113
WSep 15 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn331111113S. Chuhai214980
LSep 15 · 13:00I. Fedoryshyn31513941S. Chuhai44111111113
LSep 11 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn4211411972S. Chuhai43611411113
WSep 8 · 17:11I. Fedoryshyn351111133S. Chuhai2467110
LSep 8 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn291211151S. Chuhai4214116113
WSep 4 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn49117119113S. Chuhai4271171162
I. Fedoryshyn10
WSep 25 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn2.0011611113M. Baday1.73611881WSep 25 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.91811651I. Fedoryshyn1.8011911113LSep 25 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.804820R. Ivanov1.911111113WSep 25 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.638880I. Fedoryshyn1.441111113WSep 25 · 12:30M. Baday1.678690I. Fedoryshyn2.101111113WSep 24 · 17:08I. Fedoryshyn1.911118113M. Baday1.8081630LSep 24 · 15:30M. Baday1.6711613113I. Fedoryshyn2.105111131LSep 24 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.5364121142S. Chuhai2.381111109113WSep 24 · 13:30R. Ivanov2.009131371I. Fedoryshyn1.73111115113WSep 24 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.4011117113A. Lushchyk2.75771181
S. Chuhai10
LSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.2511911113S. Chuhai3.75711651WSep 25 · 15:00M. Baday1.33119891S. Chuhai3.2581111113LSep 25 · 14:00S. Chuhai3.2511411572M. Baday1.33811711113LSep 25 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.638880I. Fedoryshyn1.441111113LSep 25 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.406890R. Ivanov1.301111113WSep 24 · 17:38S. Chuhai4.00412613113R. Ivanov1.221110111192WSep 24 · 16:00A. Lushchyk1.7391110111S. Chuhai2.0011912133WSep 24 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.5364121142S. Chuhai2.381111109113WSep 24 · 13:00M. Baday1.44661171S. Chuhai2.6311119113LSep 24 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.2811611113S. Chuhai3.50711571
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