TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartlomiej Mrugala vs Marcin Kowalczyk 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Home
2.05
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210118––––
Marcin Kowalczyk
Away
1.66
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:07 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeMarcin Kowalczyk to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
1161210118––––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 30–32 Marcin Kowalczyk Bartlomiej Mrugala has won 30 of their 62 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Kowalczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-32 in 62
Kowalczyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1242 vs Kowalczyk 1280
Kowalczyk
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 40% vs Kowalczyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 20% vs Kowalczyk 60%
Kowalczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala +1 · Kowalczyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kowalczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 2.05 / Kowalczyk 1.66
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kowalczyk)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13189991
Mrugala2.05
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 96 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 65
Kowalczyk1.66
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 91 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it74% 81 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrugala5wins
AwayKowalczyk5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrugalan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKowalczyk62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrugala2Kowalczyk8n = 10Kowalczyk took 8 of 10
S2Mrugala5Kowalczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Mrugala5Kowalczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Mrugala7Kowalczyk2n = 9Mrugala took 7 of 9
S5Mrugala3Kowalczyk3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrugalaKowalczykM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.542.1−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaKowalczykBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 677 vs 741 / 150645.8%49.2%310 / 677 vs 741 / 1506Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalczykMrugala 2.05/Kowalczyk 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Kowalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 19:40B. Mrugala4177111152M. Kowalczyk48111196113
WSep 16 · 18:30B. Mrugala50881111123M. Kowalczyk43111165102
LAug 20 · 21:30B. Mrugala269980M. Kowalczyk331111113
LAug 20 · 18:30B. Mrugala4079111122M. Kowalczyk47111159113
LJul 28 · 21:30B. Mrugala346101171M. Kowalczyk4311129113
WJul 28 · 19:40B. Mrugala3521111113M. Kowalczyk32118581
WJul 27 · 15:25B. Mrugala3911116113M. Kowalczyk35781191
WJun 10 · 16:25B. Mrugala40411311113M. Kowalczyk4711811982
LJun 8 · 17:05B. Mrugala4171161162M. Kowalczyk49118118113
WJun 4 · 17:05B. Mrugala49111188113M. Kowalczyk4494111192
B. Mrugala10
WSep 24 · 15:00B. Mrugala2.851411149113J. Glanowski1.361213121162LSep 18 · 24:35B. Mrugala1.809890K. Golaszewski1.851111113LSep 17 · 23:45M. Trela1.8531112113B. Mrugala1.801121091WSep 17 · 22:35B. Mrugala1.8311115113J. Rolak1.81691151LSep 17 · 21:55J. Lamperski1.44111198113B. Mrugala2.5068111152LSep 17 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.76111196113B. Mrugala1.8877111152LSep 17 · 18:55J. Lamperski1.571311113B. Mrugala2.2011680LSep 17 · 18:10B. Mrugala1.836750J. Rolak1.801111113LSep 17 · 16:35B. Mrugala2.25891191M. Trela1.5211114113LSep 17 · 15:50K. Golaszewski1.941111113B. Mrugala1.715870
M. Kowalczyk10
LSep 24 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk1.9011115382J. Rolak1.75871111113WSep 23 · 23:20J. Glanowski1.40117731M. Kowalczyk2.7591111113LSep 23 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski1.651111511113M. Kowalczyk2.1013711772LSep 23 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk2.158460W. Gluszek1.621111113WSep 23 · 21:05P. Krukar1.6311651292M. Kowalczyk1.938111110113WSep 23 · 20:30J. Glanowski1.36981151M. Kowalczyk2.5011118113WSep 23 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk1.82931111113P. Krukar1.8811119562LSep 23 · 18:10P. Strus2.0091111113M. Kowalczyk1.70114631WSep 23 · 16:55D. Poloszczanski1.75941191M. Kowalczyk1.9811115113WSep 17 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.76111196113B. Mrugala1.8877111152
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