TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Jerzy Michalik 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211811911––––
Jerzy Michalik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Jerzy Michalik below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 52 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 5–7 Jerzy Michalik Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:54What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Michalik
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1418 vs Michalik 1370
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 60% vs Michalik 40%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 70% vs Michalik 50%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -1 · Michalik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kwiatkowski)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.73 / Michalik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13188907
Kwiatkowski1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 46 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Michalik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 114 of 328
Down 0–1, comes back18% 34 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski4wins
AwayMichalik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski100%4 of 4
AwayMichalik100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski4Michalik6n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski8Michalik2n = 10Kwiatkowski took 8 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski4Michalik6n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski2Michalik3n = 5Michalik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiMichalikK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.835.5+0.3per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 293 vs 561 / 118444%47.4%129 / 293 vs 561 / 1184Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.73/Michalik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski37912791J. Michalik43111011113
WSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski351311113J. Michalik2111370
LSep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski5081171952J. Michalik561161117113
WAug 25 · 23:30K. Kwiatkowski331111113J. Michalik153750
LAug 12 · 02:20K. Kwiatkowski34711881J. Michalik4111811113
LJul 31 · 01:25K. Kwiatkowski2357110J. Michalik351111133
WJul 30 · 19:20K. Kwiatkowski4111118113J. Michalik35961191
WJul 27 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski331111113J. Michalik205960
LJul 23 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski176740J. Michalik331111113
LJul 22 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski55611131692J. Michalik561151118113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 24 · 15:50J. Skorupa2.2011511113K. Kwiatkowski1.61811991WSep 24 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.37116611112K. Kwiatkowski2.87811116133LSep 24 · 03:55K. Kwiatkowski2.508690J. Zelezik1.471111113WSep 24 · 02:45M. Warzecha1.706240K. Kwiatkowski2.051111113WSep 24 · 01:30M. Karpiuk2.1511871492K. Kwiatkowski1.625111112113WSep 23 · 23:55W. Stechly4.201111391K. Kwiatkowski1.1813911113WSep 23 · 23:05M. Warzecha1.45981191K. Kwiatkowski2.5011118113WSep 23 · 21:55K. Kwiatkowski2.60611611113J. Zelezik1.4411511882WSep 23 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.9611881192K. Kwiatkowski1.76711118113LSep 23 · 19:30M. Karpiuk1.65111420113K. Kwiatkowski2.056122251
J. Michalik10
LSep 24 · 15:00M. Guzik1.281111113J. Michalik3.504670LSep 23 · 05:05J. Michalik1.989812101M. Karpiuk1.73111110123WSep 23 · 03:30J. Michalik1.7514119113M. Brunner1.951231171LSep 23 · 02:20J. Michalik1.918550K. Delikatny1.781111113WSep 23 · 24:45J. Michalik2.07111011113K. Kwiatkowski1.68912791LSep 22 · 23:30J. Michalik1.8112101241M. Baran1.74141210113WSep 22 · 02:20J. Michalik2.00311511163A. Kubiak1.71116118142WSep 22 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.6661290J. Michalik2.051114113LSep 22 · 24:00M. Machelski2.20113911113J. Michalik1.5781111982WSep 21 · 23:10J. Michalik1.5411119123A. Staniczek2.254411101
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 24 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski1.91M. Karpiuk1.80—Sep 24 · 18:55K. Kwiatkowski3.50M. Guzik1.28—Sep 24 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 24 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski1.80J. Michalik1.91—Sep 24 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 24 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.61J. Skorupa2.20—Sep 25 · 01:00K. Kwiatkowski3.50M. Guzik1.28—Sep 25 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski1.73M. Karpiuk2.00—
J. Michalik
Sep 24 · 17:20J. Michalik2.25A. Fomin1.57—Sep 24 · 19:20J. Michalik2.10M. Karpiuk1.67—Sep 24 · 20:05J. Michalik1.67J. Skorupa2.10—Sep 24 · 21:00J. Michalik1.91K. Kwiatkowski1.80—Sep 24 · 22:35J. Michalik4.33M. Guzik1.20—Sep 24 · 23:20J. Michalik2.25A. Fomin1.57—Sep 25 · 01:25J. Michalik2.10M. Karpiuk1.67—Sep 25 · 02:10J. Michalik1.67J. Skorupa2.10—
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