TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Boguslaw Madej vs Oliver Vincenec 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Boguslaw Madej
Home
1.70
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9117111151012––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:40 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
9117111151012––
H2H Boguslaw Madej 0–1 Oliver Vincenec Boguslaw Madej has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Vincenec beat Madej 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:40What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Madej
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Madej 1227 vs Vincenec 1335
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madej 0% vs Vincenec 40%
Vincenec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madej 30% vs Vincenec 50%
Vincenec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Madej -5 · Vincenec -2
Madej
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Madej) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadej 1.70 / Vincenec 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Madej)+0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13183543
Madej1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite37% won 10 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it58% 7 of 12
Vincenec1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 195 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back25% 69 of 278
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMadej0wins
AwayVincenec1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderVincenec leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMadejVincenecM − VBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match44.047.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadejVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 391 vs 683 / 149436.3%45.7%142 / 391 vs 683 / 1494Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadejMadej 1.70/Vincenec 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Madej · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 23 · 07:30B. Madej44911311102O. Vincenec47117116123
B. Madej10
LSep 23 · 12:30B. Madej2.8011881362R. Gajda1.376111111113LSep 23 · 10:40B. Madej2.4511691492M. Baron1.507111112113LSep 23 · 09:05R. Skotniczny1.22111111113B. Madej4.00861381LSep 23 · 08:20R. Gajda1.50111110113B. Madej2.35771291LSep 23 · 07:30B. Madej2.45911311102O. Vincenec1.49117116123WSep 23 · 06:20B. Madej1.6617911113M. Rus2.101511791WSep 16 · 16:40B. Madej2.20712167123M. Sikon1.5711101411102LSep 16 · 15:05J. Pelka1.391111113B. Madej2.658780WSep 16 · 14:20M. Rus1.9911129752B. Madej1.678101111113LSep 16 · 13:30B. Madej3.2510550K. Hetnar1.271211113
O. Vincenec10
LSep 23 · 11:55R. Skotniczny1.571111113O. Vincenec2.209840LSep 23 · 11:05R. Gajda1.70101111123O. Vincenec2.001286101WSep 23 · 09:55O. Vincenec2.1911116133M. Baron1.538911111LSep 23 · 08:45M. Rus2.601011712113O. Vincenec1.44128111082WSep 23 · 07:30B. Madej2.45911311102O. Vincenec1.49117116123LSep 23 · 05:55R. Skotniczny1.6511711113O. Vincenec2.10611831LSep 22 · 16:40W. Buczynski1.861111113O. Vincenec1.839880WSep 22 · 15:55K. Jablonski1.75116871O. Vincenec1.9541111113WSep 22 · 13:55J. Pelka1.76913451O. Vincenec1.90111111113WSep 22 · 13:10K. Slawinski1.35711101182O. Vincenec2.90119128113
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