TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vlastimil Honemann vs Tomas Kanka 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Vlastimil Honemann
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12103117111210911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:14 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Kanka to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVlastimil Honemann above · Tomas Kanka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Tomas Kanka at 55.8%
96 points played in total.
H2H Vlastimil Honemann 1–1 Tomas Kanka Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:1455.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kanka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Honemann 1464 vs Kanka 1541
Kanka
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honemann 40% vs Kanka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honemann 50% vs Kanka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honemann +1 · Kanka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kanka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanka form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHonemann 2.10 / Kanka 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kanka)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270737
Honemann2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Kanka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 38 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it74% 25 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHonemann1wins
AwayKanka1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricHonemannKankaH − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.039.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonemannKankaBasisWin rate · lifetime2 / 6 vs 189 / 39533.3%47.9%2 / 6 vs 189 / 395Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KankaHonemann 2.10/Kanka 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Kanka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJan 19 · 06:15V. Honemann411113891T. Kanka4581511113
WJan 5 · 08:45V. Honemann3961111113T. Kanka33118681
V. Honemann10
WOct 10 · 18:15V. Honemann1.8391411113T. Bertho1.831112991LOct 10 · 17:15V. Honemann2.757680L. Kolman1.401111113WSep 16 · 20:39P. Hala1.80116811132V. Honemann1.91411116153LSep 16 · 19:30L. Provaznik1.731111143V. Honemann2.0098120LSep 16 · 19:00V. Honemann2.10561131L. Kolman1.6711114113LSep 16 · 18:00V. Honemann1.911192141P. Hala1.8081111163WFeb 3 · 21:45V. Honemann1.83811414113M. Vana1.83119111242LFeb 3 · 20:45V. Honemann2.104590R. Merkl1.671111113WFeb 3 · 19:15L. Stoces1.8311911952V. Honemann1.83111911113WFeb 3 · 18:45M. Vana1.83861191V. Honemann1.8311117113
T. Kanka10
WOct 10 · 18:45T. Kanka2.381212123L. Kolman1.531010100LOct 10 · 17:45T. Kanka1.6710490T. Bertho2.101211113LOct 8 · 16:25P. Provaznik1.6711911113T. Kanka2.10911561WOct 8 · 15:15T. Kanka2.251111123P. Provaznik1.5766100LOct 8 · 14:15T. Kanka1.73118551M. Soukup2.0091111113WOct 8 · 13:15T. Kanka2.3811125123L. Kolman1.5351011101LOct 4 · 09:15D. Brichacek1.731111123T. Kanka2.0064100WOct 4 · 08:00T. Kanka2.101141211113D. Brichacek1.6771114962LOct 4 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.331113113T. Kanka3.2591160LOct 4 · 06:00J. Jnr1.5711114113T. Kanka2.25981181
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