TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Zbynek Zientek vs Pavel Varecha 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611112911––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:28 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePavel Varecha to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Zientek above · Pavel Varecha below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Pavel Varecha at 56.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Zientek 11–12 Pavel Varecha Zbynek Zientek has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 07:2856.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Varecha
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zientek 1288 vs Varecha 1401
Varecha
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zientek 40% vs Varecha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zientek 40% vs Varecha 70%
Varecha
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zientek -1 · Varecha +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Varecha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecha form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZientek 2.00 / Varecha 1.727
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Varecha)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13254131
Zientek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 84 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back31% 29 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back20% 10 of 50
Varecha1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 41 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZientek6wins
AwayVarecha4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZientek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZientek83.3%5 of 6
AwayVarecha75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zientek6Varecha4n = 10Zientek took 6 of 10
S2Zientek6Varecha4n = 10Zientek took 6 of 10
S3Zientek4Varecha6n = 10Varecha took 6 of 10
S4Zientek4Varecha4n = 8split evenly
S5Zientek2Varecha1n = 3Zientek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZientekVarechaZ − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.6+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZientekVarechaBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 423 vs 117 / 24048.2%48.8%204 / 423 vs 117 / 240Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VarechaZientek 2.00/Varecha 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Varecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek331111113P. Varecha279990
LSep 29 · 07:30Z. Zientek421312981P. Varecha47111411113
WSep 2 · 09:30Z. Zientek43111110113P. Varecha32761271
WSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek46114911113P. Varecha4171111752
LJul 15 · 06:00Z. Zientek2271050P. Varecha341112113
LJul 9 · 06:30Z. Zientek28571151P. Varecha4111118113
LJul 7 · 07:00Z. Zientek501111117102P. Varecha44135311123
WJul 1 · 07:00Z. Zientek3511112113P. Varecha25341171
WJun 25 · 06:30Z. Zientek52911119123P. Varecha40114411102
WJun 4 · 08:30Z. Zientek3811115113P. Varecha35881181
Z. Zientek10
LOct 7 · 06:30A. Virag1.5011116113Z. Zientek2.50741161WOct 5 · 13:11Z. Zientek1.50913811113M. Levicky2.50111111782LOct 5 · 12:00J. Stach1.61911115113Z. Zientek2.2011491182WOct 5 · 11:00M. Levicky2.25112891Z. Zientek1.57111011113LOct 5 · 10:30Z. Zientek2.10116421A. Schneeberger1.6761111113WOct 3 · 20:59M. Levicky2.20119761Z. Zientek1.6141111113LOct 3 · 20:00Z. Zientek1.53111411362M. Levicky2.38816611113LOct 3 · 19:30D. Kolek1.731111113Z. Zientek2.007980LOct 3 · 18:00Z. Zientek2.0011851162A. Schneeberger1.73811115113WOct 2 · 09:30D. Mikula1.539311111Z. Zientek2.3811118133
P. Varecha10
WOct 7 · 08:00P. Varecha1.25111576113A. Virag3.75613111192WOct 7 · 06:00P. Varecha1.531311113D. Mikula2.3811680LOct 2 · 09:20M. Kolek1.4411117123P. Varecha2.639911101WOct 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.671111143M. Kolek2.1055120LOct 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.501111113P. Varecha1.509990LOct 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.40281191D. Mikula2.7511117113WSep 30 · 13:30P. Varecha1.4891111113D. Kolek2.45117791WSep 30 · 12:00P. Varecha1.6711113143E. Sionkala2.108511121WSep 30 · 11:30D. Kolek2.25115981P. Varecha1.5741111113WSep 30 · 10:00P. Varecha2.10121110113J. Stach1.671081291
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