TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Kowolowski vs Roman Guliak 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1816711711118611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Kowolowski to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Kowolowski above · Roman Guliak below
Set 1 · 18-16
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 106 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Miroslav Kowolowski at 59.3%
106 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Kowolowski 6–5 Roman Guliak Roman Guliak has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5159.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kowolowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowolowski 1450 vs Guliak 1423
Kowolowski
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowolowski 20% vs Guliak 40%
Guliak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowolowski 40% vs Guliak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowolowski -3 · Guliak +1
Kowolowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kowolowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowolowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowolowski 1.615 / Guliak 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kowolowski)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13249145
Kowolowski1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 91 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it69% 62 of 90
Guliak2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 72 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back23% 25 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowolowski5wins
AwayGuliak5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowolowski62.5%5 of 8
AwayGuliakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowolowski8Guliak2n = 10Kowolowski took 8 of 10
S2Kowolowski4Guliak6n = 10Guliak took 6 of 10
S3Kowolowski6Guliak4n = 10Kowolowski took 6 of 10
S4Kowolowski2Guliak6n = 8Guliak took 6 of 8
S5Kowolowski2Guliak3n = 5Guliak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowolowskiGuliakK − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.640.8−0.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowolowskiGuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 312 vs 338 / 68254.8%49.6%171 / 312 vs 338 / 682Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KowolowskiKowolowski 1.61/Guliak 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Kowolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Guliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 23 · 20:30M. Kowolowski4583111492R. Guliak511111612113
WJul 21 · 19:30M. Kowolowski341112113R. Guliak2561090
WJul 19 · 06:00M. Kowolowski491141211113R. Guliak4381114462
WJul 14 · 19:00M. Kowolowski551212119113R. Guliak47101461162
LJul 7 · 19:00M. Kowolowski4211116772R. Guliak47681111113
LJun 27 · 10:00M. Kowolowski46136111152R. Guliak551111913113
WJun 21 · 16:30M. Kowolowski331111113R. Guliak167630
LJun 20 · 19:00M. Kowolowski29116841R. Guliak4181111113
LMay 6 · 20:58M. Kowolowski32611781R. Guliak4211911113
M. Kowolowski10
LOct 6 · 20:58I. Taichman2.001114113M. Kowolowski1.7351240LOct 6 · 19:30M. Jasek2.381111113M. Kowolowski1.535680LOct 6 · 18:00M. Kowolowski1.539460I. Taichman2.381111113LOct 5 · 08:58R. Adam1.61911411113M. Kowolowski2.2011811682WOct 5 · 08:30R. Adam1.50111110582M. Kowolowski2.50471211113LOct 5 · 07:30M. Kowolowski1.57168551M. Blejchar2.25141111113LOct 5 · 06:30E. Gebek1.671412113M. Kowolowski2.10121090WOct 3 · 17:30R. Adam1.2811751192M. Kowolowski3.50711112113LOct 3 · 16:00R. Adam1.331111113M. Kowolowski3.259850WOct 3 · 15:00R. Guliak2.201311311102M. Kowolowski1.61157119123
R. Guliak10
LOct 6 · 21:28M. Jasek1.671111113R. Guliak2.106580WOct 6 · 19:00I. Taichman2.108860R. Guliak1.671111113LOct 6 · 18:30R. Guliak1.91119861M. Jasek1.8081111113LOct 5 · 21:30P. Hanel1.3651111113R. Guliak3.00119921WOct 5 · 20:00R. Guliak2.38581211113F. Zurek1.53111110992LOct 5 · 19:30P. Hanel1.5091111113R. Guliak2.50116941WOct 5 · 18:00R. Guliak1.831111113I. Taichman1.836480LOct 3 · 17:13R. Guliak1.8381161222V. Bosak1.831141110113WOct 3 · 16:30R. Guliak3.0011115183V. Bosak1.367711161LOct 3 · 15:00R. Guliak2.201311311102M. Kowolowski1.61157119123
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