TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Vesecky vs David Bochnak 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3117111171012––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 72 set 4, 10-12 · our read held David Bochnak at 62.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 28–33 David Bochnak David Vesecky has won 28 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0062.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 7.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-33 in 61
Bochnak
Correct
gap of 5 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1652 vs Bochnak 1836
Bochnak
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 60% vs Bochnak 100%
Bochnak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 40% vs Bochnak 80%
Bochnak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky +1 · Bochnak +7
Bochnak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Bochnak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 2.625 / Bochnak 1.444
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Bochnak)-7.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13242997
Vesecky2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 59 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back24% 18 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Bochnak1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 131 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 98 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky3wins
AwayBochnak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeseckyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBochnak75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky2Bochnak8n = 10Bochnak took 8 of 10
S2Vesecky5Bochnak5n = 10split evenly
S3Vesecky6Bochnak4n = 10Vesecky took 6 of 10
S4Vesecky2Bochnak5n = 7Bochnak took 5 of 7
S5Vesecky1Bochnak2n = 3Bochnak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyBochnakV − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.039.2−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 640 vs 367 / 59254.8%62%351 / 640 vs 367 / 592Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakVesecky 2.63/Bochnak 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 13:25D. Vesecky371281251D. Bochnak46141110113
LOct 1 · 10:38D. Vesecky51111112982D. Bochnak538131011113
WOct 1 · 07:55D. Vesecky331111113D. Bochnak176830
WSep 23 · 16:55D. Vesecky4391211113D. Bochnak331110391
LSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky268990D. Bochnak331111113
LSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky43411112152D. Bochnak49118211173
LAug 28 · 08:25D. Vesecky31811571D. Bochnak4111811113
LAug 27 · 09:25D. Vesecky348111141D. Bochnak4111613113
WAug 26 · 12:50D. Vesecky483101111133D. Bochnak46111266112
LAug 23 · 12:50D. Vesecky246990D. Bochnak331111113
D. Vesecky10
WOct 4 · 14:55P. Vanek1.80116711102D. Vesecky1.91411114123LOct 2 · 14:25V. Nadvornik1.90111210113D. Vesecky1.808101241WOct 2 · 13:25M. Cerny1.678640D. Vesecky2.101111113LOct 2 · 12:25D. Vesecky1.8071411532V. Nadvornik1.911112911113WOct 2 · 10:55P. Dvorak2.754118121D. Vesecky1.4011611143WOct 1 · 14:03J. Kocab1.40411111052D. Vesecky2.75116712113LOct 1 · 13:25D. Bochnak1.50141110113D. Vesecky2.501281251LOct 1 · 12:25D. Vesecky2.1071111462M. Cerny1.67116811113LOct 1 · 10:55J. Kocab1.44471111113D. Vesecky2.6311117272LOct 1 · 10:38D. Vesecky2.20111112982D. Bochnak1.618131011113
D. Bochnak10
WOct 4 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.834111110113M. Cerny1.8311951282WOct 1 · 14:35D. Bochnak1.91118611133M. Cerny1.80211115112WOct 1 · 13:25D. Bochnak1.50141110113D. Vesecky2.501281251WOct 1 · 11:55J. Kocab3.409910D. Bochnak1.301111113WOct 1 · 11:25M. Cerny1.83111155102D. Bochnak1.83361111123WOct 1 · 10:38D. Vesecky2.20111112982D. Bochnak1.618131011113WOct 1 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.83711119113M. Cerny1.8311691192LOct 1 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.501111113D. Bochnak1.506830WOct 1 · 07:25V. Nadvornik2.388840D. Bochnak1.531111113LSep 28 · 14:25O. Kadavy1.80111135113D. Bochnak1.9176111122
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