TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Brozek vs Petr Dvorak 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711118311118711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Petr Dvorak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Michal Brozek at 60.8%
88 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 3–1 Petr Dvorak Petr Dvorak has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0660.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Brozek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Brozek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1697 vs Dvorak 1654
Brozek
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 80% vs Dvorak 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 80% vs Dvorak 60%
Brozek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +3 · Dvorak +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Brozek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 1.533 / Dvorak 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Brozek)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221809
Brozek1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 140 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it86% 80 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it77% 109 of 142
Dvorak2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 3 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 5
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBrozek3wins
AwayDvorak1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderBrozek leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek2Dvorak2n = 4split evenly
S2Brozek3Dvorak1n = 4Brozek took 3 of 4
S3Brozek1Dvorak3n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricBrozekDvorakB − DBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.533.5+5.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime521 / 998 vs 30 / 6152.2%49.2%521 / 998 vs 30 / 61Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBrozek 1.53/Dvorak 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 26 · 22:28M. Brozek45111184113P. Dvorak4188111132
WSep 26 · 18:55M. Brozek331111113P. Dvorak102260
WJul 2 · 15:25M. Brozek48713611113P. Dvorak48111111872
LNov 4 · 02:20M. Brozek2881190P. Dvorak351113113
M. Brozek10
WSep 30 · 15:20M. Brozek1.731111113D. Hyza2.009550WSep 30 · 14:20M. Brozek1.838121011113P. Benes1.83111012872WSep 26 · 22:28M. Brozek1.53111184113P. Dvorak2.3888111132LSep 26 · 21:25M. Prochazka1.6111911113M. Brozek2.20411691WSep 26 · 20:25M. Brozek2.5091311123A. Kosacky1.5011112101WSep 26 · 18:55P. Dvorak1.832260M. Brozek1.831111113LSep 22 · 18:23M. Brozek2.10118101182P. Vanek1.67811128113WSep 22 · 17:25P. Vanek1.8081030M. Brozek1.911112113WSep 22 · 16:25M. Brozek2.201111113A. Kosacky1.619550WSep 22 · 14:55D. Hyza2.10911114122M. Brozek1.67114611143
P. Dvorak10
WSep 30 · 15:50P. Benes1.8088111462P. Dvorak1.911111412113WSep 30 · 14:50P. Dvorak1.6111611113D. Hyza2.20211451WSep 27 · 18:34P. Dvorak1.801111113J. Benak1.915740WSep 27 · 17:25J. Kocab2.20691161P. Dvorak1.6111115113WSep 27 · 16:25P. Dvorak1.831111113J. Benak1.839780LSep 27 · 14:55M. Prochazka1.8311711113P. Dvorak1.83911771LSep 26 · 22:28M. Brozek1.53111184113P. Dvorak2.3888111132WSep 26 · 20:55P. Dvorak1.6771111113A. Kosacky2.10118671WSep 26 · 19:55P. Dvorak1.80118411113M. Prochazka1.9161111792LSep 26 · 18:55P. Dvorak1.832260M. Brozek1.831111113
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