TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Adamiak vs Maksymilian Miastowski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111195111210114
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Adamiak above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 91 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 54.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Adamiak 6–9 Maksymilian Miastowski Grzegorz Adamiak has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:55What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Miastowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Miastowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamiak 1781 vs Miastowski 1825
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamiak 60% vs Miastowski 20%
Adamiak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamiak 40% vs Miastowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamiak -2 · Miastowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Miastowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamiak 2.25 / Miastowski 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Miastowski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13194616
Adamiak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 62 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 93
Miastowski1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 108 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it94% 47 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it78% 76 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamiak4wins
AwayMiastowski6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMiastowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamiak75%3 of 4
AwayMiastowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamiak4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S2Adamiak4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S3Adamiak3Miastowski7n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S4Adamiak4Miastowski2n = 6Adamiak took 4 of 6
S5Adamiak2Miastowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamiakMiastowskiA − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.938.7−2.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamiakMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 746 vs 576 / 111443.3%51.7%323 / 746 vs 576 / 1114Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiAdamiak 2.25/Miastowski 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 08:30G. Adamiak40113411113M. Miastowski3961111742
LMay 2 · 15:10G. Adamiak247980M. Miastowski331111113
WSep 21 · 12:25G. Adamiak341112113M. Miastowski2671090
LSep 21 · 06:40G. Adamiak4010118111M. Miastowski4312711133
LSep 20 · 13:15G. Adamiak224990M. Miastowski331111113
LSep 20 · 07:15G. Adamiak46117131052M. Miastowski461111112113
LSep 7 · 14:30G. Adamiak227690M. Miastowski331111113
WSep 7 · 07:30G. Adamiak43711311113M. Miastowski4011311962
LSep 7 · 05:00G. Adamiak41510111142M. Miastowski52111299113
WAug 12 · 16:40G. Adamiak47121410113M. Miastowski4210121281
G. Adamiak10
LSep 26 · 12:30G. Adamiak2.6341191192A. Abbasi1.44119119113LSep 26 · 11:15G. Adamiak3.7551191182K. Petas1.25116119113WSep 26 · 10:00T. Spanik1.5711119562G. Adamiak2.25561111113WSep 26 · 09:20G. Adamiak1.9111116113K. Kolodziej1.80671161WSep 26 · 08:30G. Adamiak2.10113411113M. Miastowski1.6761111742WSep 26 · 06:55G. Adamiak2.751191113113M. Jadczyk1.4071171592LSep 26 · 05:40G. Adamiak2.50891191T. Spanik1.5011119113LSep 26 · 04:10G. Adamiak3.75710120J. Folwarski1.251112143LSep 26 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.7546140K. Petas1.251111163LSep 13 · 13:45G. Adamiak2.75711771M. Jadczyk1.4011511113
M. Miastowski10
LSep 26 · 12:55T. Spanik1.6781411113M. Miastowski2.101112691WSep 26 · 12:05M. Miastowski2.20971111113K. Kolodziej1.6111116572LSep 26 · 10:25M. Miastowski1.836111051K. Petas1.8311712113LSep 26 · 09:40A. Abbasi1.53911118133M. Miastowski2.38116611112LSep 26 · 08:30G. Adamiak2.10113411113M. Miastowski1.6761111742LSep 26 · 07:20M. Miastowski2.10871551K. Petas1.67111113113WSep 26 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.441111514122M. Miastowski2.63771116143LSep 26 · 04:55T. Spanik1.57111113113M. Miastowski2.25871571LSep 26 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.28111210113M. Miastowski3.509101271WSep 25 · 15:45M. Miastowski1.831111113J. Kuzmicz1.839480
Upcoming Matches
G. Adamiak
M. Miastowski
Sep 27 · 03:45M. Miastowski2.50M. Jadczyk1.50—Sep 27 · 04:55M. Miastowski1.67G. Adamiak2.10—Sep 27 · 05:40M. Miastowski1.48K. Kolodziej2.30—Sep 27 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.83K. Petas1.83—Sep 27 · 08:05M. Miastowski2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 27 · 09:20M. Miastowski2.10K. Kolodziej1.67—Sep 27 · 12:05M. Miastowski2.50M. Jadczyk1.50—Sep 27 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.10T. Spanik1.67—Sep 27 · 14:35M. Miastowski1.83K. Petas1.83—
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