TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yan Krol vs Valentyn Lobas 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118119116––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYan Krol above · Valentyn Lobas below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 56.2%
74 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 35–39 Valentyn Lobas Yan Krol has won 35 of their 74 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lobas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-39 in 74
Lobas
Wrong
gap of 4 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1573 vs Lobas 1662
Lobas
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 20% vs Lobas 80%
Lobas
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 30% vs Lobas 60%
Lobas
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol -2 · Lobas +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Lobas) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 2.10 / Lobas 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Lobas)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13191497
Krol2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 64 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back30% 27 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Lobas1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 110 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it79% 91 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol5wins
AwayLobas5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKroln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLobas62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol2Lobas8n = 10Lobas took 8 of 10
S2Krol8Lobas2n = 10Krol took 8 of 10
S3Krol5Lobas5n = 10split evenly
S4Krol6Lobas3n = 9Krol took 6 of 9
S5Krol1Lobas3n = 4Lobas took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolLobasK − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.139.5+0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolLobasBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 585 vs 241 / 41950.8%57.5%297 / 585 vs 241 / 419Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasKrol 2.10/Lobas 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 00:05Y. Krol33811951V. Lobas3811511113
LSep 19 · 00:05Y. Krol4261111952V. Lobas51119911113
WSep 13 · 00:05Y. Krol4061211113V. Lobas331110481
LSep 12 · 00:05Y. Krol4241111792V. Lobas44118311113
LSep 6 · 00:05Y. Krol4494111192V. Lobas46111176113
LSep 5 · 00:05Y. Krol301010100V. Lobas361212123
WAug 29 · 22:35Y. Krol4312119113V. Lobas301051141
WAug 29 · 00:05Y. Krol495111111113V. Lobas4711913952
WAug 22 · 22:35Y. Krol4011117113V. Lobas34971171
WAug 22 · 00:05Y. Krol3851111113V. Lobas36118891
Y. Krol10
WSep 26 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2512119113O. Melashenko3.751071191LSep 25 · 22:35Y. Krol2.0041111672O. Gomilko1.73119611113LSep 25 · 21:05Y. Krol2.633790D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 20 · 04:05Y. Krol1.2511119113O. Melashenko3.75991191LSep 20 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6711118113Y. Krol2.10981191LSep 20 · 00:05V. Lobas1.7311511113Y. Krol2.00811951WSep 19 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831111113M. Marchuk1.838450LSep 19 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.1011117123Y. Krol1.676611101LSep 19 · 03:05Y. Krol1.676280K. Hrynenko2.101111113WSep 19 · 01:35Y. Krol1.911111113O. Gomilko1.805970
V. Lobas10
LSep 26 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.501111113V. Lobas1.505510WSep 25 · 23:05V. Lobas1.4011123113D. Derevynskyi2.756101161WSep 25 · 22:05O. Melashenko2.636960V. Lobas1.441111113LSep 20 · 03:05V. Lobas1.7371050O. Gomilko2.001112113WSep 20 · 01:35V. Lobas1.441114113K. Hrynenko2.6391280WSep 20 · 00:05V. Lobas1.7311511113Y. Krol2.00811951LSep 19 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3311470O. Melashenko3.251311113WSep 19 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361311113M. Marchuk3.0011190LSep 19 · 04:05V. Lobas1.339430M. Marchuk3.251111113LSep 19 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.5011119113V. Lobas1.50381191
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