TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Melnykov vs Sergii Skhabitskiy 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1198111181210––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Melnykov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Sergii Skhabitskiy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 80 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Volodymyr Melnykov at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 43–43 Sergii Skhabitskiy Dead even across their 86 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Melnykov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-43 in 86
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1354 vs Skhabitskiy 1349
Melnykov
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 60% vs Skhabitskiy 20%
Melnykov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 50% vs Skhabitskiy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov -2 · Skhabitskiy -3
Skhabitskiy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melnykov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 1.73 / Skhabitskiy 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Melnykov)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13190573
Melnykov1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 59 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it72% 38 of 53
Skhabitskiy2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 96 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back9% 7 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnykov7wins
AwaySkhabitskiy3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnykov leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykov77.8%7 of 9
AwaySkhabitskiyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnykov9Skhabitskiy1n = 10Melnykov took 9 of 10
S2Melnykov2Skhabitskiy8n = 10Skhabitskiy took 8 of 10
S3Melnykov8Skhabitskiy2n = 10Melnykov took 8 of 10
S4Melnykov4Skhabitskiy3n = 7Melnykov took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnykovSkhabitskiyM − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.134.4+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovSkhabitskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 534 vs 473 / 107146.1%44.2%246 / 534 vs 473 / 1071Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnykovMelnykov 1.73/Skhabitskiy 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Melnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 07:35V. Melnykov4211811123S. Skhabitskiy389118101
WSep 24 · 10:20V. Melnykov331111113S. Skhabitskiy239590
LSep 19 · 09:30V. Melnykov30117841S. Skhabitskiy3851111113
LAug 24 · 10:50V. Melnykov4611911872S. Skhabitskiy45511711113
WAug 10 · 09:50V. Melnykov4111811113S. Skhabitskiy35911871
WAug 7 · 06:30V. Melnykov52138119113S. Skhabitskiy51111191192
WAug 3 · 09:20V. Melnykov3811511113S. Skhabitskiy25511811
WJul 31 · 05:30V. Melnykov341211113S. Skhabitskiy2210840
WJul 27 · 05:50V. Melnykov3711311123S. Skhabitskiy347116101
LJul 26 · 15:00V. Melnykov185940S. Skhabitskiy331111113
V. Melnykov10
LSep 25 · 05:35V. Melnykov2.201110179102O. Ovsiienko1.619121511123LSep 24 · 12:20V. Melnykov2.504890M. Stetsenko1.501111113WSep 24 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy1.919590V. Melnykov1.801111113WSep 24 · 09:20V. Melnykov2.381111126113O. Ovsiienko1.5389141192WSep 24 · 08:20A. Kovalenko1.6713881182V. Melnykov2.101111119113LSep 24 · 06:50V. Melnykov2.10721261O. Mytsyk1.67111110113WSep 19 · 11:30V. Melnykov1.364111111113S. Semenets3.0011813242LSep 19 · 09:30S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113V. Melnykov1.73117841LSep 19 · 07:30M. Stetsenko1.531212123V. Melnykov2.381010100WSep 19 · 06:30V. Melnykov3.0011115113O. Ovsiienko1.36871191
S. Skhabitskiy10
LSep 25 · 06:05S. Skhabitskiy2.101147111O. Mytsyk1.6791111133LSep 24 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy2.20311871A. Kovalenko1.6111211113LSep 24 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy1.919590V. Melnykov1.801111113WSep 24 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.0011115113O. Mytsyk1.73971171LSep 24 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy1.8348111152O. Ovsiienko1.83111168113WSep 24 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.10771111113M. Stetsenko1.6711119562LSep 23 · 18:00S. Skhabitskiy1.91951181V. Smyk1.8011116113WSep 23 · 16:30S. Skhabitskiy2.00691111113O. Ovsiienko1.7311118862LSep 23 · 15:00S. Skhabitskiy2.25571191O. Lipeiko1.5711117113WSep 19 · 09:30S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113V. Melnykov1.73117841
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