Pavel Fojt vs Lukas Krok 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Pavel Fojt

Home

1.32

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 3

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

114611115119––

Lukas Krok

Away

3.10

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:20 and never touched: 73.6% is still 73.6%

Graded at full time

Pavel Fojt to win

73.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingPavel Fojt above · Lukas Krok below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 11-5

Set 4 · 11-9

Point 68 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Pavel Fojt at 73.6%

68 points played in total.

H2H Pavel Fojt 9–2 Lukas Krok Lukas Krok has won 2 of their 11 meetings.

Last 10 · 8–2Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Fojt

Fojt 1.32/Krok 3.10

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

73.6%

Fojt · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Fojt won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 21:20

73.6%Our read75.8%to break even at 1.32

short by 2.2pp

75.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.32 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.32 (70%)

Fojt

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

9-2 in 11

Fojt

Correct

gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Fojt 1522 vs Krok 1503

Fojt

Correct

both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Fojt 60% vs Krok 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Fojt 50% vs Krok 50%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Fojt +3 · Krok +2

Fojt

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Fojt) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Krok: form 60%, the price implies 32%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsFojt 1.32 / Krok 3.10

Signal prob.74% / 26%

Edge (Fojt)-2.2pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 4h before this match

Fojt beat Krok 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeFojt8wins

AwayKrok2wins

1 of 10 to a deciderFojt leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeFojt100%6 of 6

AwayKrok50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Fojt6Krok4n = 10Fojt took 6 of 10

S2Fojt8Krok2n = 10Fojt took 8 of 10

S3Fojt9Krok1n = 10Fojt took 9 of 10

S4Fojt4Krok2n = 6Fojt took 4 of 6

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricFojtKrokF − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.030.3+6.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricFojtKrokBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 692 vs 178 / 37649%47.3%339 / 692 vs 178 / 376Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.8per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13286809

Fojt1.32

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite63% won 80 of 127

Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41

Up 1–0, closes it81% 52 of 64

Krok3.10

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog47% won 55 of 116

Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 60

Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33

Pavel Fojt vs Lukas Krok 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Pavel Fojt vs Lukas Krok 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.