TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Kyryl Darin vs Lukas Krok 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171210511118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Lukas Krok @ 2.20 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Lukas Krok below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Kyryl Darin at 59.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 33–38 Lukas Krok Kyryl Darin has won 33 of their 71 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 19:54Sent to Pro: Lukas Krok @ 2.20 · Lost
59.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Darin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-38 in 71
Krok
Wrong
gap of 5 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1566 vs Krok 1481
Darin
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 40% vs Krok 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 40% vs Krok 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin -3 · Krok -1
Darin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Darin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Darin form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 1.615 / Krok 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Darin)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269279
Darin1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 165 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it93% 84 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it78% 112 of 144
Krok2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 55 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDarin6wins
AwayKrok4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDarin leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin71.4%5 of 7
AwayKrok66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin7Krok3n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S2Darin5Krok5n = 10split evenly
S3Darin2Krok8n = 10Krok took 8 of 10
S4Darin9Krok1n = 10Darin took 9 of 10
S5Darin2Krok3n = 5Krok took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDarinKrokD − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.842.2+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinKrokBasisWin rate · lifetime789 / 1586 vs 175 / 37249.8%47%789 / 1586 vs 175 / 372Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrokDarin 1.61/Krok 2.20
Miss
What we said
59.3%
Darin · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Lukas Krok @ 2.20 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–1
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 20:00K. Darin3911125113L. Krok367101181
WOct 3 · 21:30K. Darin4311119123L. Krok337511101
WOct 3 · 19:30K. Darin4012116113L. Krok351061181
WSep 17 · 20:00K. Darin541112911113L. Krok4591411652
WSep 15 · 20:00K. Darin525131211113L. Krok48111510932
LSep 11 · 18:00K. Darin4411761192L. Krok48911116113
LSep 8 · 21:30K. Darin348115101L. Krok4011611123
LSep 8 · 19:30K. Darin44119311102L. Krok52911119123
WSep 5 · 18:00K. Darin4011711113L. Krok30911551
LAug 21 · 18:00K. Darin48911101442L. Krok551191212113
K. Darin10
LOct 10 · 19:30L. Babicka2.10111198113K. Darin1.6786111192LOct 10 · 18:00K. Darin1.671312531J. Dedek2.10151011113LOct 10 · 03:30T. Dousa1.601213113K. Darin2.20101170WOct 10 · 01:30K. Darin1.611111113J. Dedek2.207440WOct 10 · 00:30A. Mikuska1.57137120K. Darin2.251511143LOct 9 · 23:30T. Dousa1.731211113K. Darin2.0010890WOct 9 · 22:30K. Darin1.5011117113A. Svoboda2.50691151WOct 9 · 21:00F. Jungman1.6741060K. Darin2.101112113LOct 9 · 20:30K. Darin1.838970J. Plachy1.831111113LOct 9 · 19:00K. Darin2.007711101T. Dousa1.7311116123
L. Krok10
WOct 10 · 21:00L. Krok1.5721111113L. Babicka2.25117531LOct 10 · 19:00J. Dedek1.6761111123L. Krok2.101157101WOct 10 · 18:30L. Krok1.731711113L. Babicka2.0015620LOct 8 · 21:00L. Krok1.53121111742Y. Holovatiuk2.38147811113LOct 8 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.611011311113L. Krok2.2012611992WOct 8 · 19:30L. Krok1.509121011123Y. Holovatiuk2.501110127102LOct 8 · 18:30T. Dousa1.7311131112113L. Krok2.0081541472LOct 3 · 21:30K. Darin1.7311119123L. Krok2.007511101WOct 3 · 20:00L. Krok1.7311411113J. Plachy2.00711571LOct 3 · 19:30K. Darin2.0012116113L. Krok1.731061181
Upcoming Matches
K. Darin
L. Krok
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