Ondrej Skvor vs Filip Theodor 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 54 - H4 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Ondrej Skvor

Home

1.73

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

6111111311118811

Filip Theodor

Away

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched: 57.5% is still 57.5%

Graded at full time

Ondrej Skvor to win

57.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Filip Theodor below

Set 1 · 6-11

Set 2 · 1-11

Set 3 · 13-11

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 8-11

Point 91 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Ondrej Skvor at 57.5%

91 points played in total.

H2H Ondrej Skvor 3–2 Filip Theodor Filip Theodor has won 2 of their 5 meetings.

Last 5 · 3–2Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Skvor

Skvor 1.73/Theodor 2.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

57.5%

Skvor · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Theodor won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 20:40

57.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 0.4pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Skvor

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

3-2 in 5

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Skvor 1489 vs Theodor 1528

Theodor

Correct

both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Skvor 40% vs Theodor 20%

Skvor

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Skvor 50% vs Theodor 50%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Skvor -2 · Theodor +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Skvor) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Theodor: form 20%, the price implies 50%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSkvor 1.727 / Theodor 2.00

Signal prob.58% / 43%

Edge (Skvor)-0.4pp

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Skvor beat Theodor 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 5 meetings

HomeSkvor3wins

AwayTheodor2wins

1 of 5 to a deciderSkvor leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSkvorn = 2, below the 3 needed

AwayTheodor66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Skvor2Theodor3n = 5Theodor took 3 of 5

S2Skvor4Theodor1n = 5Skvor took 4 of 5

S3Skvor2Theodor3n = 5Theodor took 3 of 5

S4Skvor3Theodor0n = 3Skvor took 3 of 3

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home120%

3–1Four sets, home240%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away120%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away120%

These 5 meetings

MetricSkvorTheodorS − TBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.631.8+3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSkvorTheodorBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 237 vs 102 / 20653.6%49.5%127 / 237 vs 102 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match

TT Cup · #13286678

Skvor1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite56% won 79 of 140

Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35

Up 1–0, closes it69% 50 of 72

Theodor2.00

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog53% won 33 of 62

Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27

Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12

Ondrej Skvor vs Filip Theodor 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Ondrej Skvor vs Filip Theodor 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.