TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Ogrocki vs Filip Theodor 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119117––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Theodor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Filip Theodor below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Filip Theodor at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 0–4 Filip Theodor Tomas Ogrocki has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Theodor beat Ogrocki 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1354.0%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 15.3pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Theodor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Theodor
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1403 vs Theodor 1564
Theodor
Wrong
both rated, 161 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 60% vs Theodor 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 50% vs Theodor 70%
Theodor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +1 · Theodor -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Theodor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 2.625 / Theodor 1.444
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Theodor)-15.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266406
Ogrocki2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 68 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back30% 27 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Theodor1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite42% won 13 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeOgrocki0wins
AwayTheodor4wins
2 of 4 to a deciderTheodor leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki2Theodor2n = 4split evenly
S2Ogrocki1Theodor3n = 4Theodor took 3 of 4
S3Ogrocki1Theodor3n = 4Theodor took 3 of 4
S4Ogrocki1Theodor2n = 3Theodor took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricOgrockiTheodorO − TBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.041.5−8.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiTheodorBasisWin rate · lifetime259 / 541 vs 101 / 20247.9%50%259 / 541 vs 101 / 202Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorOgrocki 2.63/Theodor 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 8 · 19:15T. Ogrocki4011115582F. Theodor42361111113
LSep 10 · 19:10T. Ogrocki3711371242F. Theodor485111110113
LAug 31 · 17:40T. Ogrocki187650F. Theodor331111113
LAug 30 · 13:45T. Ogrocki378811101F. Theodor4311119123
T. Ogrocki10
WOct 8 · 20:15L. Lasota1.73971171T. Ogrocki2.0011115113LOct 8 · 19:15T. Ogrocki2.7511115582F. Theodor1.40361111113WOct 8 · 17:45D. Branny1.614118101T. Ogrocki2.2011811123LOct 7 · 21:08P. Chvojka1.67101111113T. Ogrocki2.10128741WOct 7 · 19:40K. Przeczek1.5711911442T. Ogrocki2.25511711113LOct 7 · 19:10P. Chvojka1.731111123T. Ogrocki2.0088100WOct 7 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.6711116113J. Vanous2.10681181WOct 7 · 16:45T. Ogrocki1.8351116113F. Mandrysz1.831131451LOct 7 · 15:40T. Ogrocki1.91119114102M. Lorenc1.80811511123LOct 7 · 14:40T. Ogrocki1.6771151192O. Coufal2.10117119113
F. Theodor10
LOct 8 · 19:45D. Branny1.73116911113F. Theodor2.0071111672WOct 8 · 19:15T. Ogrocki2.7511115582F. Theodor1.40361111113WOct 8 · 18:15F. Theodor1.671111113L. Lasota2.107670WOct 5 · 21:05L. Lasota1.739760F. Theodor2.001111113LOct 5 · 20:10F. Theodor1.838770L. Lasota1.831111113WOct 5 · 18:40P. Vinansky1.575760F. Theodor2.251111113WOct 5 · 18:10D. Branny1.6711611662F. Theodor2.10311811113WSep 30 · 21:20V. Reska2.107680F. Theodor1.671111113LSep 30 · 19:45F. Theodor1.5048111132M. Raska2.50111199113WSep 30 · 18:45F. Theodor1.80111113143V. Reska1.9161311121
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