David Sykora vs Frantisek Balcar 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 5 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

David Sykora

Home

1.33

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

11611131315911––

Frantisek Balcar

Away

3.25

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:33 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%

Graded at full time

David Sykora to win

62.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingDavid Sykora above · Frantisek Balcar below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 11-13

Set 3 · 13-15

Set 4 · 9-11

Point 89 set 4, 9-11 · our read held David Sykora at 62.0%

89 points played in total.

H2H David Sykora 5–3 Frantisek Balcar Frantisek Balcar has won 3 of their 8 meetings.

Last 8 · 5–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Sykora

Sykora 1.33/Balcar 3.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

62%

Sykora · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Balcar won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:33

62.0%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333

short by 13.0pp

75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.33 (71%)

Sykora

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

5-3 in 8

Sykora

Wrong

gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Sykora 1518 vs Balcar 1463

Sykora

Wrong

both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Sykora 60% vs Balcar 20%

Sykora

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Sykora 50% vs Balcar 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Sykora -1 · Balcar -4

Balcar

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Sykora) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Balcar: form 20%, the price implies 31%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSykora 1.333 / Balcar 3.25

Signal prob.62% / 38%

Edge (Sykora)-13.0pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Sykora beat Balcar 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 8 meetings

HomeSykora5wins

AwayBalcar3wins

2 of 8 to a deciderSykora leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSykora100%5 of 5

AwayBalcar100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Sykora5Balcar3n = 8Sykora took 5 of 8

S2Sykora6Balcar2n = 8Sykora took 6 of 8

S3Sykora6Balcar2n = 8Sykora took 6 of 8

S4Sykora3Balcar2n = 5Sykora took 3 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home338%

3–1Four sets, home225%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away225%

1–3Four sets, away113%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 8 meetings

MetricSykoraBalcarS − BBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match39.232.8+6.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSykoraBalcarBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 507 vs 122 / 25154.2%48.6%275 / 507 vs 122 / 251Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.2per match

TT Cup · #13285896

Sykora1.33

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite63% won 85 of 136

Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52

Up 1–0, closes it84% 69 of 82

Balcar3.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog49% won 39 of 80

Down 0–1, comes back28% 12 of 43

Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25

David Sykora vs Frantisek Balcar 1-3 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

David Sykora vs Frantisek Balcar 1-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.