TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Sykora vs Ales Langer 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 3 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118114511711911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:30 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Langer to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sykora above · Ales Langer below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 3-0
Point 71 set 5, 3-0 · our read held Ales Langer at 54.0%
71 points drawn · the score is 17 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H David Sykora 12–16 Ales Langer David Sykora has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 12:3054.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Langer
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-16 in 28
Langer
Correct
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sykora 1508 vs Langer 1464
Sykora
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sykora 40% vs Langer 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sykora 50% vs Langer 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sykora +1 · Langer -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Langer) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Langer form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSykora 2.10 / Langer 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sykora)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277277
Sykora2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back35% 23 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 37
Langer1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 61 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it73% 45 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSykora6wins
AwayLanger4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSykora leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSykora66.7%4 of 6
AwayLanger50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sykora6Langer4n = 10Sykora took 6 of 10
S2Sykora4Langer6n = 10Langer took 6 of 10
S3Sykora5Langer5n = 10split evenly
S4Sykora5Langer1n = 6Sykora took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSykoraLangerS − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.836.9+1.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSykoraLangerBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 513 vs 267 / 57354.2%46.6%278 / 513 vs 267 / 573Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SykoraSykora 2.10/Langer 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Langer · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 12:50D. Sykora1716100A. Langer341111123
WSep 7 · 13:23D. Sykora5711121211113A. Langer4891414652
LSep 7 · 11:50D. Sykora2512490A. Langer361411113
LAug 27 · 12:55D. Sykora341176101A. Langer4391111123
WAug 6 · 08:55D. Sykora50111414113A. Langer404161281
WAug 3 · 12:20D. Sykora331111113A. Langer198560
WJul 19 · 17:30D. Sykora351311113A. Langer2611960
WJul 19 · 16:50D. Sykora4451612113A. Langer3911141041
WJul 14 · 14:05D. Sykora4381311113A. Langer341111751
LJul 14 · 11:55D. Sykora50119131252A. Langer503111510113
D. Sykora10
WOct 11 · 13:36D. Sykora2.5014116113O. Fiklik1.501261171WOct 11 · 11:20O. Fiklik1.50311891D. Sykora2.5011611113LOct 11 · 10:50M. Sulc1.40911911113D. Sykora2.7511811682LOct 8 · 21:18D. Sykora1.361123101A. Kral3.0091111123LOct 8 · 20:20D. Sykora2.256670M. Sulc1.571111113WOct 8 · 19:20D. Sykora1.4011115123A. Kral2.756711101LOct 8 · 18:20D. Sykora1.8311811772J. Hrncir1.83811611113LOct 5 · 17:59D. Sykora1.91111061182J. Melichar1.80812116113WOct 5 · 16:20D. Sykora2.1051111113J. Melichar1.67115931WOct 5 · 15:20D. Sykora1.91111213153J. Hendrych1.8091015131
A. Langer10
LOct 11 · 11:50A. Langer2.101178121M. Sulc1.6791111143WOct 11 · 10:20O. Fiklik1.67611111372A. Langer2.10118815113LOct 9 · 14:03A. Langer2.2011101110102O. Fiklik1.61712412123WOct 9 · 12:55A. Langer2.1011911113O. Fiklik1.67611841LOct 9 · 11:55A. Langer1.919111210102V. Hejda Jr1.801181012123LOct 9 · 10:55A. Langer2.75612128102D. Hyza1.4011101011123WOct 8 · 10:10A. Langer2.201111153J. Vonasek1.6165130LOct 8 · 08:55A. Langer2.208813131O. Fiklik1.61111111153WOct 8 · 07:55A. Langer2.6311811113J. Vonasek1.44711881WOct 8 · 06:55A. Langer1.911111612113V. Hejda Jr1.8044111442
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