TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Fiklik vs Ales Langer 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 3 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111181181315711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:15 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeOndrej Fiklik to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Fiklik above · Ales Langer below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-3
Point 64 set 4, 6-3 · our read held Ondrej Fiklik at 56.2%
64 points drawn · the score is 37 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Ondrej Fiklik 26–17 Ales Langer Ales Langer has won 17 of their 43 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:1556.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fiklik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-17 in 43
Fiklik
Wrong
gap of 9 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fiklik 1493 vs Langer 1485
Fiklik
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fiklik 20% vs Langer 40%
Langer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fiklik 40% vs Langer 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fiklik +1 · Langer -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Fiklik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fiklik form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFiklik 1.666 / Langer 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Fiklik)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13276287
Fiklik1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite53% won 91 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it73% 61 of 84
Langer2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 82 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFiklik7wins
AwayLanger3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFiklik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFiklik80%4 of 5
AwayLanger40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fiklik5Langer5n = 10split evenly
S2Fiklik7Langer3n = 10Fiklik took 7 of 10
S3Fiklik6Langer4n = 10Fiklik took 6 of 10
S4Fiklik5Langer3n = 8Fiklik took 5 of 8
S5Fiklik2Langer1n = 3Fiklik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFiklikLangerF − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.836.8+3.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiklikLangerBasisWin rate · lifetime548 / 1212 vs 270 / 57545.2%47%548 / 1212 vs 270 / 575Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FiklikFiklik 1.67/Langer 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Fiklik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 12:55O. Fiklik29611841A. Langer4211911113
WOct 8 · 08:55O. Fiklik48111111153A. Langer428813131
WOct 7 · 09:54O. Fiklik49941312113A. Langer511111111082
WOct 7 · 07:55O. Fiklik331111113A. Langer137150
WOct 2 · 12:20O. Fiklik4061111123A. Langer351177101
LSep 30 · 07:55O. Fiklik36911791A. Langer4211911113
LSep 27 · 06:20O. Fiklik4111651182A. Langer50811119113
WSep 24 · 08:55O. Fiklik331111113A. Langer208390
WSep 21 · 10:15O. Fiklik50119118113A. Langer4581171182
WSep 21 · 07:55O. Fiklik3961111113A. Langer28113771
O. Fiklik10
LOct 11 · 11:20O. Fiklik1.50311891D. Sykora2.5011611113WOct 9 · 14:03A. Langer2.2011101110102O. Fiklik1.61712412123LOct 9 · 12:55A. Langer2.1011911113O. Fiklik1.67611841LOct 9 · 12:25D. Hyza1.501111113O. Fiklik2.505960LOct 9 · 11:25O. Fiklik1.6111121151V. Hejda Jr2.2013147113LOct 8 · 10:40V. Hejda Jr2.25121161113O. Fiklik1.57106111172WOct 8 · 08:55A. Langer2.208813131O. Fiklik1.61111111153LOct 8 · 08:25V. Hejda Jr2.2511112113O. Fiklik1.57891181WOct 8 · 07:25O. Fiklik1.8311119113J. Vonasek1.83691171WOct 7 · 09:54O. Fiklik1.53941312113A. Langer2.381111111082
A. Langer10
LOct 9 · 14:03A. Langer2.2011101110102O. Fiklik1.61712412123WOct 9 · 12:55A. Langer2.1011911113O. Fiklik1.67611841LOct 9 · 11:55A. Langer1.919111210102V. Hejda Jr1.801181012123LOct 9 · 10:55A. Langer2.75612128102D. Hyza1.4011101011123WOct 8 · 10:10A. Langer2.201111153J. Vonasek1.6165130LOct 8 · 08:55A. Langer2.208813131O. Fiklik1.61111111153WOct 8 · 07:55A. Langer2.6311811113J. Vonasek1.44711881WOct 8 · 06:55A. Langer1.911111612113V. Hejda Jr1.8044111442LOct 7 · 09:54O. Fiklik1.53941312113A. Langer2.381111111082LOct 7 · 08:55A. Langer2.25461191V. Hejda Jr1.5711119113
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