Tomas Dousa vs Jaroslav Prokupek 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Tomas Dousa

Home

1.80

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

4111012114115811

Jaroslav Prokupek

Away

1.90

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:16 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Tomas Dousa to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingTomas Dousa above · Jaroslav Prokupek below

Set 1 · 4-11

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 11-5

Set 5 · 8-11

Point 87 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Tomas Dousa at 54.0%

87 points played in total.

H2H Tomas Dousa 29–38 Jaroslav Prokupek Tomas Dousa has won 29 of their 67 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Dousa

Dousa 1.80/Prokupek 1.90

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Dousa · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Prokupek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:16

54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.6pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Dousa

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

29-38 in 67

Prokupek

Correct

gap of 9 in 67, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Dousa 1566 vs Prokupek 1543

Dousa

Wrong

both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Dousa 80% vs Prokupek 80%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Dousa 80% vs Prokupek 70%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Dousa +1 · Prokupek +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dousa) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Prokupek: form 80%, the price implies 53%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsDousa 1.80 / Prokupek 1.90

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Dousa)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Prokupek beat Dousa 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeDousa4wins

AwayProkupek6wins

4 of 10 to a deciderProkupek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeDousa66.7%4 of 6

AwayProkupek100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Dousa6Prokupek4n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10

S2Dousa6Prokupek4n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10

S3Dousa6Prokupek4n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10

S4Dousa1Prokupek6n = 7Prokupek took 6 of 7

S5Dousa1Prokupek3n = 4Prokupek took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricDousaProkupekD − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.0−1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricDousaProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 715 vs 664 / 139349.9%47.7%357 / 715 vs 664 / 1393Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.4per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13285820

Dousa1.80

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite55% won 88 of 161

Up 2–0, closes it83% 35 of 42

Up 1–0, closes it72% 60 of 83

Prokupek1.90

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog37% won 87 of 236

Down 0–1, comes back12% 15 of 125

Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 80

Tomas Dousa vs Jaroslav Prokupek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Tomas Dousa vs Jaroslav Prokupek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.