Jaroslav Prokupek vs Jiri Plachy 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Jaroslav Prokupek

Home

1.91

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

911118118119––

Jiri Plachy

Away

1.80

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jiri Plachy to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

Sent to Pro: Jaroslav Prokupek @ 1.91 · Won

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

How it is goingJaroslav Prokupek above · Jiri Plachy below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 11-9

Point 78 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Jiri Plachy at 54.0%

78 points played in total.

H2H Jaroslav Prokupek 104–123 Jiri Plachy Jaroslav Prokupek has won 104 of their 227 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Prokupek

Prokupek 1.91/Plachy 1.80

Hit

What we said

54%

Plachy · sealed before the serve

Sent to Pro: Jaroslav Prokupek @ 1.91 · Won

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

What happened

3–1

Prokupek won

The pick

Sealed 16:00

Sent to Pro: Jaroslav Prokupek @ 1.91 · Won

54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.6pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Plachy

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

104-123 in 227

Plachy

Wrong

gap of 19 in 227, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Prokupek 1534 vs Plachy 1446

Prokupek

Correct

both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Prokupek 80% vs Plachy 20%

Prokupek

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Prokupek 60% vs Plachy 40%

Prokupek

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Prokupek +1 · Plachy -3

Plachy

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 0 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Plachy) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Plachy: form 20%, the price implies 56%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsProkupek 1.909 / Plachy 1.80

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Plachy)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeProkupek5wins

AwayPlachy5wins

3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeProkupek71.4%5 of 7

AwayPlachy100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Prokupek7Plachy3n = 10Prokupek took 7 of 10

S2Prokupek3Plachy7n = 10Plachy took 7 of 10

S3Prokupek6Plachy4n = 10Prokupek took 6 of 10

S4Prokupek4Plachy4n = 8split evenly

S5Prokupek1Plachy2n = 3Plachy took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricProkupekPlachyProkupek − PlachyBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.939.1−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricProkupekPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime663 / 1392 vs 737 / 160647.6%45.9%663 / 1392 vs 737 / 1606Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13280115

Prokupek1.91

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog37% won 87 of 236

Down 0–1, comes back12% 15 of 125

Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 80

Plachy1.80

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite58% won 123 of 212

Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69

Up 1–0, closes it88% 94 of 107

Jaroslav Prokupek vs Jiri Plachy 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

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Jaroslav Prokupek vs Jiri Plachy 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.