TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Postelt vs Jiri Plachy 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111141012711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeVladimir Postelt to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Postelt above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Vladimir Postelt at 55.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Postelt 56–39 Jiri Plachy Jiri Plachy has won 39 of their 95 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2855.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Postelt
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
56-39 in 95
Postelt
Wrong
gap of 17 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1428 vs Plachy 1481
Plachy
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 40% vs Plachy 60%
Plachy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 30% vs Plachy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt +2 · Plachy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Postelt) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 1.615 / Plachy 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Postelt)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13275736
Postelt1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 119 of 196
Up 2–0, closes it97% 58 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it84% 90 of 107
Plachy2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 145 of 367
Down 0–1, comes back20% 42 of 207
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePostelt7wins
AwayPlachy3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPostelt leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePostelt100%7 of 7
AwayPlachy100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt7Plachy3n = 10Postelt took 7 of 10
S2Postelt5Plachy5n = 10split evenly
S3Postelt6Plachy4n = 10Postelt took 6 of 10
S4Postelt5Plachy1n = 6Postelt took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPosteltPlachyPostelt − PlachyBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.232.2+7.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime425 / 811 vs 740 / 160752.4%46.1%425 / 811 vs 740 / 1607Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PosteltPostelt 1.61/Plachy 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Postelt · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Plachy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 22:30V. Postelt45111210123J. Plachy3971012101
WSep 14 · 03:30V. Postelt331111113J. Plachy101540
WSep 14 · 00:00V. Postelt4611415163J. Plachy3911113141
LSep 7 · 11:30V. Postelt4577121182J. Plachy501111107113
LSep 6 · 02:59V. Postelt32491181J. Plachy4011117113
LSep 6 · 00:00V. Postelt35108170J. Plachy421211193
WAug 29 · 23:30V. Postelt351113113J. Plachy2231180
WAug 26 · 01:00V. Postelt491161011113J. Plachy3591112302
WAug 19 · 12:00V. Postelt3911116113J. Plachy27461161
WAug 18 · 12:00V. Postelt331111113J. Plachy183870
V. Postelt10
WOct 11 · 21:00V. Postelt2.6311114113T. Janata1.44791121WOct 11 · 19:00V. Postelt2.63613116113T. Janata1.44111191192WOct 11 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.91711481V. Postelt1.8011611113LOct 9 · 02:00P. Fojt2.631111113V. Postelt1.447890LOct 9 · 00:30V. Postelt2.388450P. Zmuda1.531111113LOct 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.759690R. Krejci1.401111113WOct 8 · 22:00R. Pavelka1.911286101V. Postelt1.80101111123LOct 7 · 02:30A. Mikuska2.25134116113V. Postelt1.57111171192LOct 7 · 01:00M. Kolar1.831110713113V. Postelt1.83212111182LOct 6 · 23:30V. Postelt1.611258101A. Svoboda2.20101111123
J. Plachy10
LOct 11 · 21:30J. Plachy2.20811381R. Pavelka1.6011611113LOct 11 · 19:30J. Plachy2.20411981R. Pavelka1.6111711113WOct 11 · 18:30T. Janata1.446710J. Plachy2.631111113WOct 11 · 17:00J. Plachy2.001212113K. Darin1.73101070WOct 11 · 16:00P. Fojt1.731011121092J. Plachy2.001291012113LOct 11 · 15:00K. Darin2.0011117133J. Plachy1.736911111LOct 11 · 14:30J. Plachy1.8379111142J. Prokupek1.83111164113LOct 10 · 03:00J. Plachy2.501790M. Vedmoch1.501111113LOct 10 · 02:00J. Plachy2.50912111162K. Brozhik1.501110913113WOct 10 · 01:00J. Plachy2.501111123M. Vedmoch1.5093100
Upcoming Matches
V. Postelt
Nothing scheduled
J. Plachy
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