Tomas Rein vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 3 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Tomas Rein

Home

2.38

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

1154111210211511

Tomas Cerveny Jr

Away

1.53

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

How it is goingTomas Rein above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 2-11

Set 5 · 5-11

Point 82 set 5, 5-11

82 points played in total.

H2H Tomas Rein 33–37 Tomas Cerveny Jr Tomas Rein has won 33 of their 70 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Cerveny Jr

Rein 2.38/Cerveny Jr 1.53

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

—

no pick shipped on this market

What happened

2–3

Cerveny Jr won

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Rein: form 60%, the price implies 42%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsRein 2.375 / Cerveny Jr 1.533

Same-day rematch · 2h before this match

Rein beat Cerveny Jr 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeRein4wins

AwayCerveny Jr6wins

1 of 10 to a deciderCerveny Jr leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeReinn = 2, below the 3 needed

AwayCerveny Jr75%6 of 8

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Rein2Cerveny Jr8n = 10Cerveny Jr took 8 of 10

S2Rein6Cerveny Jr4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10

S3Rein5Cerveny Jr5n = 10split evenly

S4Rein3Cerveny Jr3n = 6split evenly

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricReinCerveny JrR − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.035.0−1.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricReinCerveny JrBasisWin rate · lifetime378 / 846 vs 337 / 61144.7%55.2%378 / 846 vs 337 / 611Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match

TT Cup · #13285113

Rein2.38

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog34% won 106 of 309

Down 0–1, comes back20% 40 of 199

Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 108

Cerveny Jr1.53

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite60% won 68 of 114

Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35

Up 1–0, closes it82% 54 of 66

Tomas Rein vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 2-3 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Tomas Rein vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.