Marek Dlask vs Jakub Mach 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 7 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Marek Dlask

Home

2.63

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

8111311114118––

Jakub Mach

Away

1.44

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched: 68.1% is still 68.1%

Graded at full time

Jakub Mach to win

68.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMarek Dlask above · Jakub Mach below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 13-11

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 11-8

Point 77 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Jakub Mach at 68.1%

77 points played in total.

H2H Marek Dlask 11–15 Jakub Mach Marek Dlask has won 11 of their 26 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4SplitHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Mach

Dlask 2.63/Mach 1.44

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

68.1%

Mach · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Dlask won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 20:16

68.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444

short by 1.2pp

69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (65%)

Mach

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

11-15 in 26

Mach

Wrong

gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Dlask 1353 vs Mach 1536

Mach

Wrong

both rated, 182 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Dlask 60% vs Mach 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Dlask 60% vs Mach 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Dlask +1 · Mach -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Mach) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Dlask: form 60%, the price implies 38%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsDlask 2.625 / Mach 1.444

Signal prob.32% / 68%

Edge (Mach)-1.2pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeDlask6wins

AwayMach4wins

5 of 10 to a deciderDlask leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeDlaskn = 2, below the 3 needed

AwayMach50%4 of 8

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Dlask2Mach8n = 10Mach took 8 of 10

S2Dlask2Mach8n = 10Mach took 8 of 10

S3Dlask7Mach3n = 10Dlask took 7 of 10

S4Dlask6Mach1n = 7Dlask took 6 of 7

S5Dlask4Mach1n = 5Dlask took 4 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricDlaskMachD − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.739.7−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricDlaskMachBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 302 vs 186 / 37447%49.7%142 / 302 vs 186 / 374Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.6per match

TT Cup · #13283746

Dlask2.63

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog39% won 21 of 54

Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 33

Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23

Mach1.44

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite66% won 44 of 67

Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24

Up 1–0, closes it77% 34 of 44

Marek Dlask vs Jakub Mach 3-1 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Marek Dlask vs Jakub Mach 3-1 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.