Michal Nemec vs Jakub Mach 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 7 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Michal Nemec

Home

2.20

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

91110121210118116

Jakub Mach

Away

1.62

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Jakub Mach below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 11-6

Point 100 set 5, 11-6

100 points played in total.

H2H Michal Nemec 7–9 Jakub Mach Michal Nemec has won 7 of their 16 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Mach

Nemec 2.20/Mach 1.61

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

—

no pick shipped on this market

What happened

3–2

Nemec won

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Nemec: form 60%, the price implies 45%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNemec 2.20 / Mach 1.615

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Nemec beat Mach 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeNemec4wins

AwayMach6wins

2 of 10 to a deciderMach leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeNemecn = 1, below the 3 needed

AwayMach66.7%6 of 9

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Nemec1Mach9n = 10Mach took 9 of 10

S2Nemec6Mach4n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10

S3Nemec4Mach6n = 10Mach took 6 of 10

S4Nemec6Mach1n = 7Nemec took 6 of 7

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricNemecMachN − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match35.937.7−1.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricNemecMachBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 749 vs 187 / 37647.7%49.7%357 / 749 vs 187 / 376Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match

TT Cup · #13286893

Nemec2.20

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog32% won 72 of 226

Down 0–1, comes back13% 19 of 145

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 87

Mach1.61

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite66% won 44 of 67

Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24

Up 1–0, closes it77% 34 of 44

Michal Nemec vs Jakub Mach 3-2 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Michal Nemec vs Jakub Mach 3-2 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.