Radek Zeman vs Marek Dlask 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 7 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Radek Zeman

Home

1.50

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

117113911115––

Marek Dlask

Away

2.40

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched: 65.1% is still 65.1%

Graded at full time

Radek Zeman to win

65.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingRadek Zeman above · Marek Dlask below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 11-3

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-5

Point 68 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Radek Zeman at 65.1%

68 points played in total.

H2H Radek Zeman 47–44 Marek Dlask Marek Dlask has won 44 of their 91 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Zeman

Zeman 1.50/Dlask 2.40

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

65.1%

Zeman · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Zeman won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 21:56

65.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 1.6pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (62%)

Zeman

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

47-44 in 91

Zeman

Correct

gap of 3 in 91, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Zeman 1487 vs Dlask 1371

Zeman

Correct

both rated, 116 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Zeman 80% vs Dlask 60%

Zeman

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Zeman 60% vs Dlask 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Zeman +1 · Dlask +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Zeman) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Dlask: form 60%, the price implies 42%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsZeman 1.50 / Dlask 2.40

Signal prob.65% / 35%

Edge (Zeman)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 4h before this match

Zeman beat Dlask 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeZeman7wins

AwayDlask3wins

4 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeZeman100%6 of 6

AwayDlask75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Zeman6Dlask4n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10

S2Zeman6Dlask4n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10

S3Zeman7Dlask3n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10

S4Zeman4Dlask3n = 7Zeman took 4 of 7

S5Zeman2Dlask2n = 4split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricZemanDlaskZ − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.833.3+6.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricZemanDlaskBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 609 vs 143 / 30353.7%47.2%327 / 609 vs 143 / 303Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.8per match

TT Cup · #13286892

Zeman1.50

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite68% won 111 of 164

Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74

Up 1–0, closes it83% 89 of 107

Dlask2.40

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog39% won 21 of 54

Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 33

Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23

Radek Zeman vs Marek Dlask 3-1 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Radek Zeman vs Marek Dlask 3-1 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.