Petr Dvorak vs Jan Benak 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 6 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Petr Dvorak

Home

1.57

At publish

Won last 9

Form at publish

9–1Last 10Won last 9

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

10121151113611––

Jan Benak

Away

2.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:40 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%

Graded at full time

Petr Dvorak to win

62.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingPetr Dvorak above · Jan Benak below

Set 1 · 10-12

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 11-13

Set 4 · 6-11

Point 79 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Petr Dvorak at 62.9%

79 points played in total.

H2H Petr Dvorak 4–1 Jan Benak Jan Benak has won 1 of their 5 meetings.

Last 5 · 4–1Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Dvorak

Dvorak 1.57/Benak 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

62.9%

Dvorak · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Benak won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 16:40

62.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 0.8pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Dvorak

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

4-1 in 5

Dvorak

Wrong

gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Dvorak 1752 vs Benak 1680

Dvorak

Wrong

both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Dvorak 100% vs Benak 60%

Dvorak

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Dvorak 90% vs Benak 50%

Dvorak

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Dvorak +9 · Benak +1

Dvorak

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Benak: form 60%, the price implies 44%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsDvorak 1.571 / Benak 2.25

Signal prob.63% / 37%

Edge (Dvorak)-0.8pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 5 meetings

HomeDvorak4wins

AwayBenak1wins

1 of 5 to a deciderDvorak leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeDvorak80%4 of 5

AwayBenakn = 0, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Dvorak5Benak0n = 5Dvorak took 5 of 5

S2Dvorak4Benak1n = 5Dvorak took 4 of 5

S3Dvorak4Benak1n = 5Dvorak took 4 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home360%

3–1Four sets, home120%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away120%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 5 meetings

MetricDvorakBenakD − BBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match35.829.4+6.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricDvorakBenakBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 66 vs 103 / 19157.6%53.9%38 / 66 vs 103 / 191Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.2per match

TT Cup · #13283683

Dvorak1.57

90%won 9 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 9

oldest → newest

90%takes the first set · 9 of 10

As favourite81% won 17 of 21

Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7

Up 1–0, closes it93% 14 of 15

Benak2.25

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog43% won 16 of 37

Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25

Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14

Petr Dvorak vs Jan Benak 1-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Petr Dvorak vs Jan Benak 1-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.