TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Benak vs Jan Kocab 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 6 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119121061110121012
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:22 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJan Kocab to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Benak above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 103 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Jan Kocab at 54.5%
103 points played in total.
H2H Jan Benak 14–16 Jan Kocab Jan Benak has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2254.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kocab
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-16 in 30
Kocab
Correct
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1688 vs Kocab 1683
Benak
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 60% vs Kocab 40%
Benak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 40% vs Kocab 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak +3 · Kocab +2
Benak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Kocab) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 2.00 / Kocab 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Kocab)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13279067
Benak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 15 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Kocab1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 67 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it89% 56 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak4wins
AwayKocab6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKocab leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak100%3 of 3
AwayKocab85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak3Kocab7n = 10Kocab took 7 of 10
S2Benak5Kocab5n = 10split evenly
S3Benak6Kocab4n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S4Benak3Kocab5n = 8Kocab took 5 of 8
S5Benak2Kocab2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakKocabB − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.740.3−3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 190 vs 142 / 29954.7%47.5%104 / 190 vs 142 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KocabBenak 2.00/Kocab 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Kocab · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 10:03J. Benak361114113J. Kocab2141250
LOct 9 · 06:55J. Benak204790J. Kocab331111113
LOct 4 · 11:25J. Benak4871381282J. Kocab5411111110113
LOct 2 · 10:40J. Benak3744111172J. Kocab47111195113
LOct 2 · 06:55J. Benak33711691J. Kocab4211911113
WSep 27 · 15:25J. Benak3631111113J. Kocab33118771
WSep 3 · 07:55J. Benak42113115123J. Kocab49811911102
LAug 18 · 06:55J. Benak35811881J. Kocab4211911113
WAug 7 · 12:55J. Benak49117117133J. Kocab43711311112
LAug 6 · 14:09J. Benak31941171J. Kocab3911116113
J. Benak10
LOct 11 · 18:45J. Kocab1.80111012113J. Benak1.914121031WOct 11 · 15:55P. Vanek1.7351111101J. Benak2.0011136123WOct 11 · 15:25A. Kosacky1.8371213552J. Benak1.8311101111113WOct 9 · 10:03J. Kocab1.6741250J. Benak2.101114113LOct 9 · 08:55J. Benak1.831111111192A. Kosacky1.83131389113LOct 9 · 07:55J. Benak1.7381181162V. Nadvornik2.00115114113LOct 9 · 06:55J. Benak1.834790J. Kocab1.831111113WOct 8 · 17:35M. Brozek2.7571111542J. Benak1.40117811113LOct 8 · 16:20J. Benak2.108870P. Dvorak1.671111113LOct 8 · 15:20J. Benak1.67691261P. Benes2.10111110113
J. Kocab10
WOct 11 · 18:45J. Kocab1.80111012113J. Benak1.914121031WOct 11 · 16:25J. Kocab2.101111113A. Kosacky1.677920WOct 11 · 14:55P. Vanek1.615740J. Kocab2.201111113LOct 9 · 10:03J. Kocab1.6741250J. Benak2.101114113LOct 9 · 09:25V. Nadvornik1.8311118193J. Kocab1.833911171LOct 9 · 08:25J. Kocab2.5091180A. Kosacky1.501113113WOct 9 · 06:55J. Benak1.834790J. Kocab1.831111113LOct 8 · 13:25J. Kocab1.408520M. Brozek2.751111113LOct 8 · 12:50J. Kocab2.63961151M. Cerny1.4411117113LOct 8 · 11:20D. Vesecky2.631111113J. Kocab1.448590
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