Michal Moravec vs Bruno Mrowetz 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 52 - H2 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Michal Moravec

Home

2.20

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

11710121191210––

Bruno Mrowetz

Away

1.62

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:11 and never touched: 55.5% is still 55.5%

Graded at full time

Bruno Mrowetz to win

55.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Bruno Mrowetz below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 12-10

Point 82 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Bruno Mrowetz at 55.5%

82 points played in total.

H2H Michal Moravec 13–14 Bruno Mrowetz Michal Moravec has won 13 of their 27 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Mrowetz

Moravec 2.20/Mrowetz 1.61

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

55.5%

Mrowetz · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Moravec won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 12:11

55.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 6.4pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Mrowetz

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

13-14 in 27

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Moravec 1639 vs Mrowetz 1631

Moravec

Correct

both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Moravec 80% vs Mrowetz 60%

Moravec

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Moravec 70% vs Mrowetz 50%

Moravec

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Moravec -1 · Mrowetz -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Mrowetz) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Moravec: form 80%, the price implies 45%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMoravec 2.20 / Mrowetz 1.615

Signal prob.45% / 56%

Edge (Mrowetz)-6.4pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMoravec4wins

AwayMrowetz6wins

5 of 10 to a deciderMrowetz leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMoravec75%3 of 4

AwayMrowetz83.3%5 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Moravec4Mrowetz6n = 10Mrowetz took 6 of 10

S2Moravec2Mrowetz8n = 10Mrowetz took 8 of 10

S3Moravec6Mrowetz4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10

S4Moravec2Mrowetz5n = 7Mrowetz took 5 of 7

S5Moravec3Mrowetz2n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricMoravecMrowetzMoravec − MrowetzBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.844.8−4.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMoravecMrowetzBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 433 vs 274 / 54551.3%50.3%222 / 433 vs 274 / 545Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.3per match

TT Cup · #13282393

Moravec2.20

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog44% won 45 of 103

Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 58

Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33

Mrowetz1.61

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite57% won 79 of 138

Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44

Up 1–0, closes it76% 60 of 79

Michal Moravec vs Bruno Mrowetz 3-1 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Michal Moravec vs Bruno Mrowetz 3-1 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.