TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Skalicky vs Bruno Mrowetz 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 52 - H2 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6119111181171214
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:14 and never touched: 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Skalicky to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Skalicky above · Bruno Mrowetz below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 100 set 5, 12-14 · our read held Jiri Skalicky at 70.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Skalicky 2–1 Bruno Mrowetz Bruno Mrowetz has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1470.9%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 4.1pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Skalicky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skalicky 1611 vs Mrowetz 1614
Mrowetz
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skalicky 40% vs Mrowetz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skalicky 50% vs Mrowetz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skalicky +1 · Mrowetz -3
Mrowetz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Skalicky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skalicky form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkalicky 1.333 / Mrowetz 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Skalicky)-4.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277165
Skalicky1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 43 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Mrowetz3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 65 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSkalicky2wins
AwayMrowetz1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSkalicky leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skalicky1Mrowetz2n = 3Mrowetz took 2 of 3
S2Skalicky2Mrowetz1n = 3Skalicky took 2 of 3
S3Skalicky3Mrowetz0n = 3Skalicky took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSkalickyMrowetzS − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.037.0+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkalickyMrowetzBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 225 vs 272 / 54250.7%50.2%114 / 225 vs 272 / 542Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkalickySkalicky 1.33/Mrowetz 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.9%
Skalicky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mrowetz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 11 · 12:15J. Skalicky49691111122B. Mrowetz51111187143
WAug 8 · 13:45J. Skalicky4391112113B. Mrowetz371171091
WJun 28 · 11:40J. Skalicky341211113B. Mrowetz2310850
J. Skalicky10
LOct 11 · 12:54B. Mrowetz2.381111113J. Skalicky1.539740WOct 11 · 10:45M. Zaskodny1.8010780J. Skalicky1.911211113LOct 11 · 10:15F. Chaloupka1.8011118113J. Skalicky1.91481151WOct 10 · 20:39D. Velky Jr1.7361411672J. Skalicky2.001112811113LOct 10 · 19:40J. Skalicky1.53891181J. Krupnik2.3811115113LOct 10 · 18:40J. Skalicky1.911271191D. Velky Jr1.8014114113LOct 10 · 17:40J. Skalicky1.83117381I. Heuman1.8331111113WOct 4 · 08:53J. Skalicky1.611111113J. Krupnik2.205680LOct 4 · 08:15J. Skalicky1.83811431J. Travnicek1.8311911113WOct 4 · 06:45F. Chaloupka1.8361111552J. Skalicky1.83119811113
B. Mrowetz10
WOct 11 · 12:54B. Mrowetz2.381111113J. Skalicky1.539740LOct 11 · 11:15B. Mrowetz2.00811491F. Chaloupka1.7311411113LOct 11 · 09:45M. Zaskodny1.61111511113B. Mrowetz2.207131381LOct 9 · 13:03M. Moravec2.00851111113B. Mrowetz1.7311117892WOct 9 · 11:40B. Mrowetz1.7311613113R. Benes2.008111171WOct 9 · 10:40B. Mrowetz2.001111113T. Krenek1.734890LOct 9 · 09:40B. Mrowetz1.57911981M. Moravec2.2511911113WOct 6 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.80116116112B. Mrowetz1.91711711133WOct 6 · 12:10T. Krenek1.736760B. Mrowetz2.001111113LOct 6 · 11:10B. Mrowetz1.91911971J. Skvrna1.8011711113
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