Kyryl Darin vs Jiri Plachy 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Kyryl Darin

Home

2.00

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

114811119115––

Jiri Plachy

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jiri Plachy to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Jiri Plachy below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 11-5

Point 70 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Jiri Plachy at 54.0%

70 points played in total.

H2H Kyryl Darin 41–37 Jiri Plachy Jiri Plachy has won 37 of their 78 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Plachy

Darin 2.00/Plachy 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Plachy · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Darin won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 18:21

54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.9pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Plachy

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

41-37 in 78

Darin

Correct

gap of 4 in 78, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Darin 1511 vs Plachy 1454

Darin

Correct

both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Darin 20% vs Plachy 20%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Darin 30% vs Plachy 50%

Plachy

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Darin -2 · Plachy +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Plachy) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Plachy: form 20%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsDarin 2.00 / Plachy 1.727

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Darin)-4.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeDarin6wins

AwayPlachy4wins

4 of 10 to a deciderDarin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeDarin100%3 of 3

AwayPlachy57.1%4 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Darin3Plachy7n = 10Plachy took 7 of 10

S2Darin6Plachy4n = 10Darin took 6 of 10

S3Darin3Plachy7n = 10Plachy took 7 of 10

S4Darin5Plachy2n = 7Darin took 5 of 7

S5Darin3Plachy1n = 4Darin took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricDarinPlachyD − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.9+2.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricDarinPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime788 / 1587 vs 738 / 160849.7%45.9%788 / 1587 vs 738 / 1608Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.5per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13281865

Darin2.00

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 11)

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog42% won 175 of 420

Down 0–1, comes back19% 44 of 231

Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 143

Plachy1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite58% won 123 of 212

Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69

Up 1–0, closes it88% 94 of 107

Kyryl Darin vs Jiri Plachy 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Kyryl Darin vs Jiri Plachy 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.