Jaroslav Sindler vs Martin Lorenc 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 22 - Czech 11 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Jaroslav Sindler

Home

2.20

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

911117115118––

Martin Lorenc

Away

1.62

At publish

Won last 5

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 5

The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:06 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%

Graded at full time

Martin Lorenc to win

58.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Martin Lorenc below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 11-5

Set 4 · 11-8

Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Martin Lorenc at 58.9%

73 points played in total.

H2H Jaroslav Sindler 6–7 Martin Lorenc Jaroslav Sindler has won 6 of their 13 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Lorenc

Sindler 2.20/Lorenc 1.61

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.9%

Lorenc · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Sindler won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 08:06

58.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 3.0pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Lorenc

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

6-7 in 13

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Sindler 1391 vs Lorenc 1465

Lorenc

Wrong

both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Sindler 40% vs Lorenc 100%

Lorenc

Wrong

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Sindler 30% vs Lorenc 60%

Lorenc

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Sindler +1 · Lorenc +5

Lorenc

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Lorenc) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Lorenc: form 100%, the price implies 62%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSindler 2.20 / Lorenc 1.615

Signal prob.41% / 59%

Edge (Lorenc)-3.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSindler5wins

AwayLorenc5wins

2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSindler75%3 of 4

AwayLorenc66.7%4 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Sindler4Lorenc6n = 10Lorenc took 6 of 10

S2Sindler7Lorenc3n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10

S3Sindler4Lorenc6n = 10Lorenc took 6 of 10

S4Sindler4Lorenc4n = 8split evenly

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricSindlerLorencS − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.239.1−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSindlerLorencBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 872 vs 80 / 17051.8%47.1%452 / 872 vs 80 / 170Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.137.9per match

TT Cup · #13281647

Sindler2.20

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog53% won 74 of 140

Down 0–1, comes back34% 22 of 65

Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 31

Lorenc1.61

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 5

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite50% won 30 of 60

Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8

Up 1–0, closes it63% 17 of 27

Jaroslav Sindler vs Martin Lorenc 3-1 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jaroslav Sindler vs Martin Lorenc 3-1 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.