TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Coufal vs Martin Lorenc 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Coufal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Coufal above · Martin Lorenc below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Ondrej Coufal at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Coufal 1–0 Martin Lorenc Martin Lorenc has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Coufal beat Lorenc 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1354.0%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.9pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Coufal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Coufal 1372 vs Lorenc 1432
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coufal 40% vs Lorenc 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coufal 50% vs Lorenc 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Coufal -1 · Lorenc +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Coufal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Coufal form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoufal 1.615 / Lorenc 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Coufal)-7.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13260470
Coufal1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Lorenc2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 17 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back16% 3 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCoufal1wins
AwayLorenc0wins
Coufal leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCoufalLorencC − LBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.028.0+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoufalLorencBasisWin rate · lifetime14 / 34 vs 77 / 16741.2%46.1%14 / 34 vs 77 / 167Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CoufalCoufal 1.61/Lorenc 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Coufal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 7 · 14:10O. Coufal341111123M. Lorenc2899100
O. Coufal10
LOct 7 · 16:10O. Coufal1.8010111071F. Mandrysz1.9112812113WOct 7 · 14:40T. Ogrocki1.6771151192O. Coufal2.10117119113WOct 7 · 14:10M. Lorenc1.6799100O. Coufal2.101111123LOct 5 · 16:25O. Coufal—6740T. Ogrocki—1111113LOct 5 · 15:15O. Coufal2.251011661V. Reska1.5712811113WOct 5 · 13:45T. Ogrocki1.8058111152O. Coufal1.91111179113LSep 28 · 09:24P. Jokiel1.7311115123O. Coufal2.009711101WSep 28 · 07:45O. Coufal2.2031111113P. Chlad1.61116681LSep 28 · 06:45O. Coufal1.916460P. Jokiel1.801111113WSep 28 · 05:45O. Coufal1.8081111113P. Chvojka1.91116881
M. Lorenc10
WOct 7 · 15:40T. Ogrocki1.91119114102M. Lorenc1.80811511123WOct 7 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.50611100M. Lorenc1.501113123LOct 7 · 14:10M. Lorenc1.6799100O. Coufal2.101111123LOct 7 · 12:40M. Lorenc1.28641191M. Kliment3.5011116113LOct 7 · 11:40A. Drozd1.91911118113M. Lorenc1.8011871152WOct 7 · 11:10M. Kliment2.50911101162M. Lorenc1.50119129113LOct 7 · 10:10M. Lorenc1.5311911982J. Sindler2.38911411113LOct 4 · 13:15O. Skvor1.831381111113M. Lorenc1.83111181372WOct 4 · 12:10M. Lorenc1.7381111113J. Sindler2.00118671WOct 4 · 10:40O. Skvor1.83771281M. Lorenc1.83111110113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.