Michal Makara vs Stepan Rejent 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Michal Makara

Home

2.25

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1191171214118––

Stepan Rejent

Away

1.57

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:40 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%

Graded at full time

Stepan Rejent to win

60.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMichal Makara above · Stepan Rejent below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 12-14

Set 4 · 11-8

Point 83 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Stepan Rejent at 60.1%

83 points played in total.

H2H Michal Makara 37–53 Stepan Rejent Michal Makara has won 37 of their 90 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Rejent

Makara 2.25/Rejent 1.57

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

60.1%

Rejent · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Makara won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:40

60.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 3.6pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Rejent

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

37-53 in 90

Rejent

Wrong

gap of 16 in 90, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Makara 1624 vs Rejent 1686

Rejent

Wrong

both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Makara 40% vs Rejent 80%

Rejent

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Makara 50% vs Rejent 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Makara -2 · Rejent +3

Rejent

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Rejent) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Rejent: form 80%, the price implies 64%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMakara 2.25 / Rejent 1.571

Signal prob.40% / 60%

Edge (Rejent)-3.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMakara3wins

AwayRejent7wins

6 of 10 to a deciderRejent leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMakara20%1 of 5

AwayRejent60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Makara5Rejent5n = 10split evenly

S2Makara2Rejent8n = 10Rejent took 8 of 10

S3Makara5Rejent5n = 10split evenly

S4Makara5Rejent4n = 9Makara took 5 of 9

S5Makara2Rejent4n = 6Rejent took 4 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away440%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricMakaraRejentM − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.144.7−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMakaraRejentBasisWin rate · lifetime509 / 1063 vs 356 / 75647.9%47.1%509 / 1063 vs 356 / 756Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.0per match

Setka Cup · #13281592

Makara2.25

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog44% won 149 of 336

Down 0–1, comes back25% 46 of 183

Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 89

Rejent1.57

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite54% won 78 of 144

Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39

Up 1–0, closes it76% 60 of 79

Michal Makara vs Stepan Rejent 3-1 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Michal Makara vs Stepan Rejent 3-1 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.