Vitalii S Marushchak vs Pavel Plakushchyi 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Vitalii S Marushchak

Home

1.62

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

12106111197111210

Pavel Plakushchyi

Away

2.20

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%

Graded at full time

Vitalii S Marushchak to win

60.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Pavel Plakushchyi below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 7-11

Set 5 · 12-10

Point 99 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 60.5%

99 points played in total.

H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 5–6 Pavel Plakushchyi Vitalii S Marushchak has won 5 of their 11 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Marushchak

Marushchak 1.61/Plakushchyi 2.20

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

60.5%

Marushchak · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Marushchak won

The pickConfirm

Sealed 18:54

60.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 1.4pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Marushchak

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

5-6 in 11

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Marushchak 1802 vs Plakushchyi 1575

Marushchak

Correct

both rated, 227 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Marushchak 60% vs Plakushchyi 20%

Marushchak

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Marushchak 50% vs Plakushchyi 20%

Marushchak

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Marushchak +2 · Plakushchyi -4

Plakushchyi

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.

Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Marushchak) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Plakushchyi: form 20%, the price implies 45%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMarushchak 1.615 / Plakushchyi 2.20

Signal prob.61% / 40%

Edge (Marushchak)-1.4pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMarushchak4wins

AwayPlakushchyi6wins

2 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMarushchak60%3 of 5

AwayPlakushchyi80%4 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Marushchak5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly

S2Marushchak4Plakushchyi6n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10

S3Marushchak5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly

S4Marushchak1Plakushchyi4n = 5Plakushchyi took 4 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricMarushchakPlakushchyiM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.936.7−0.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMarushchakPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 654 vs 329 / 74250%44.3%327 / 654 vs 329 / 742Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.4per match

Setka Cup · #13281441

Marushchak1.61

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite62% won 91 of 148

Up 2–0, closes it98% 54 of 55

Up 1–0, closes it83% 71 of 86

Plakushchyi2.20

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog34% won 88 of 258

Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 158

Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 91

Vitalii S Marushchak vs Pavel Plakushchyi 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Vitalii S Marushchak vs Pavel Plakushchyi 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.