TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii S Marushchak vs Vladyslav Mishchenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111159111315––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:53 and never touched: 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Vladyslav Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 84 set 4, 13-15 · our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 73.1%
84 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 30–22 Vladyslav Mishchenko Vladyslav Mishchenko has won 22 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5373.1%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 3.8pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Marushchak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-22 in 52
Marushchak
Wrong
gap of 8 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1840 vs Mishchenko 1567
Marushchak
Wrong
both rated, 273 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 80% vs Mishchenko 20%
Marushchak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 80% vs Mishchenko 30%
Marushchak
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak +1 · Mishchenko -4
Mishchenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Marushchak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.30 / Mishchenko 3.40
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Marushchak)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266188
Marushchak1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 90 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it98% 54 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it84% 71 of 85
Mishchenko3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 35 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak7wins
AwayMishchenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak100%7 of 7
AwayMishchenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak7Mishchenko3n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S2Marushchak6Mishchenko4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S3Marushchak6Mishchenko4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S4Marushchak4Mishchenko0n = 4Marushchak took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakMishchenkoMarushchak − MishchenkoBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.729.6+5.1per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 652 vs 182 / 39750.2%45.8%327 / 652 vs 182 / 397Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.30/Mishchenko 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.1%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 09:35V. Marushchak4111811113V. Mishchenko26311661
WSep 9 · 08:20V. Marushchak351211123V. Mishchenko28108100
WAug 21 · 13:10V. Marushchak4211128113V. Mishchenko378101181
LAug 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak32710150V. Mishchenko401112173
WAug 3 · 14:10V. Marushchak331111113V. Mishchenko136430
WJul 29 · 06:50V. Marushchak331111113V. Mishchenko227870
LJul 24 · 11:40V. Marushchak4157111172V. Mishchenko44111165113
LJul 17 · 15:40V. Marushchak155550V. Mishchenko331111113
WJul 13 · 13:40V. Marushchak331111113V. Mishchenko173590
WJul 8 · 06:50V. Marushchak4211119113V. Mishchenko36891181
V. Marushchak10
LOct 9 · 15:30V. Marushchak1.4012911572A. Hrabskyi2.751011611113WOct 9 · 13:00V. Marushchak1.4491111133A. Lievshin2.631198111LOct 8 · 17:29O. Kolbasenko2.501211113V. Marushchak1.5010770WOct 8 · 16:30V. Marushchak1.401111113V. Voronenko2.757520WOct 8 · 15:30V. Marushchak1.531111113A. Lievshin2.385830WOct 8 · 14:00V. Marushchak1.441061111113O. Kolbasenko2.6312119732WOct 8 · 13:00V. Marushchak1.441112113A. Hrabskyi2.6391080WOct 5 · 18:30V. Marushchak1.5011711113A. Hrabskyi2.50911671WOct 5 · 16:30P. Plakushchyi1.8011114952V. Marushchak1.91571111113LOct 5 · 15:30V. Marushchak1.808911111A. Yurkov1.9111115133
V. Mishchenko10
LOct 9 · 15:00A. Yurkov1.57111111143V. Mishchenko2.251376121LOct 9 · 12:30A. Hrabskyi1.501110119113V. Mishchenko2.5081281162LSep 16 · 11:35V. Mishchenko2.1071060A. Hrabskyi1.671112113LSep 16 · 09:35V. Marushchak1.3311811113V. Mishchenko3.25311661LSep 16 · 08:35V. Mishchenko2.25113131152A. Lievshin1.57511159113WSep 16 · 07:35O. Kolbasenko1.331071191V. Mishchenko3.2512119113LSep 16 · 06:05V. Mishchenko2.634660O. Gavryshko1.441111113WSep 9 · 12:20V. Mishchenko2.2081111113A. Hrabskyi1.61117291WSep 9 · 10:20O. Seliuchenko1.5791110101V. Mishchenko2.2511612123LSep 9 · 09:20V. Mishchenko2.108660A. Yurkov1.671111113
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