Lukas Krutina vs Martin Holub 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Lukas Krutina

Home

1.62

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

1181155111012811

Martin Holub

Away

2.20

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%

Graded at full time

Lukas Krutina to win

58.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingLukas Krutina above · Martin Holub below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 10-12

Set 5 · 8-11

Point 92 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Lukas Krutina at 58.9%

92 points played in total.

H2H Lukas Krutina 36–30 Martin Holub Martin Holub has won 30 of their 66 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Krutina

Krutina 1.61/Holub 2.20

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.9%

Krutina · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Holub won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 05:53

58.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 3.0pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Krutina

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

36-30 in 66

Krutina

Wrong

gap of 6 in 66, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Krutina 1337 vs Holub 1293

Krutina

Wrong

both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Krutina 40% vs Holub 60%

Holub

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Krutina 50% vs Holub 50%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Krutina -1 · Holub +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Krutina) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Holub: form 60%, the price implies 45%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKrutina 1.615 / Holub 2.20

Signal prob.59% / 41%

Edge (Krutina)-3.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKrutina6wins

AwayHolub4wins

3 of 10 to a deciderKrutina leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKrutina80%4 of 5

AwayHolub60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Krutina5Holub5n = 10split evenly

S2Krutina7Holub3n = 10Krutina took 7 of 10

S3Krutina4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10

S4Krutina5Holub5n = 10split evenly

S5Krutina2Holub1n = 3Krutina took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricKrutinaHolubK − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.040.9+1.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKrutinaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 239 vs 348 / 64451.1%54%122 / 239 vs 348 / 644Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.2per match

Setka Cup · #13281305

Krutina1.61

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 11 days ago (Oct 01) · back after a break

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As favourite55% won 45 of 82

Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22

Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40

Holub2.20

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog48% won 55 of 114

Down 0–1, comes back29% 15 of 52

Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22

Lukas Krutina vs Martin Holub 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Lukas Krutina vs Martin Holub 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.