Petr Picek vs Milan Smrcek 0-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec

Played Oct 13Finished

Petr Picek

Home

1.80

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 3

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

311911911––––

Milan Smrcek

Away

1.91

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Petr Picek to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingPetr Picek above · Milan Smrcek below

Set 1 · 3-11

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 9-11

Point 54 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Petr Picek at 54.0%

54 points played in total.

H2H Petr Picek 28–22 Milan Smrcek Milan Smrcek has won 22 of their 50 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Picek

Picek 1.80/Smrcek 1.91

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Picek · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Smrcek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 01:56

54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.6pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Picek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

28-22 in 50

Picek

Wrong

gap of 6 in 50, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Picek 1449 vs Smrcek 1438

Picek

Wrong

both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Picek 60% vs Smrcek 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Picek 50% vs Smrcek 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Picek +3 · Smrcek +2

Picek

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Picek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPicek 1.80 / Smrcek 1.909

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Picek)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomePicek6wins

AwaySmrcek4wins

6 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomePicek66.7%4 of 6

AwaySmrcek50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Picek6Smrcek4n = 10Picek took 6 of 10

S2Picek4Smrcek6n = 10Smrcek took 6 of 10

S3Picek7Smrcek3n = 10Picek took 7 of 10

S4Picek3Smrcek7n = 10Smrcek took 7 of 10

S5Picek4Smrcek2n = 6Picek took 4 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricPicekSmrcekP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.542.0−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricPicekSmrcekBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 553 vs 250 / 51749.6%48.4%274 / 553 vs 250 / 517Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.3per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13280371

Picek1.80

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite59% won 75 of 128

Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41

Up 1–0, closes it77% 56 of 73

Smrcek1.91

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog34% won 16 of 47

Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13

Petr Picek vs Milan Smrcek 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Petr Picek vs Milan Smrcek 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.