TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Smrcek vs Petr Picek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117811118611311
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:30 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timePetr Picek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Petr Picek @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingMilan Smrcek above · Petr Picek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 87 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Petr Picek at 54.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smrcek 21–27 Petr Picek Milan Smrcek has won 21 of their 48 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:3054.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Picek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-27 in 48
Picek
Correct
gap of 6 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smrcek 1407 vs Picek 1405
Smrcek
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smrcek 20% vs Picek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smrcek 50% vs Picek 30%
Smrcek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smrcek +1 · Picek -3
Picek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Picek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmrcek 2.00 / Picek 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Picek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13259450
Smrcek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 15 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Picek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 73 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it78% 55 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmrcek4wins
AwayPicek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmrcek33.3%1 of 3
AwayPicek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smrcek3Picek7n = 10Picek took 7 of 10
S2Smrcek7Picek3n = 10Smrcek took 7 of 10
S3Smrcek3Picek7n = 10Picek took 7 of 10
S4Smrcek6Picek4n = 10Smrcek took 6 of 10
S5Smrcek2Picek3n = 5Picek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmrcekPicekS − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.040.9+0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmrcekPicekBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 509 vs 273 / 55348.1%49.4%245 / 509 vs 273 / 553Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PicekSmrcek 2.00/Picek 1.73
Hit
What we said
54.1%
Picek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Petr Picek @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
2–3
Picek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 02:00M. Smrcek47711711113P. Picek4011711652
LSep 17 · 03:30M. Smrcek327113111P. Picek3811311133
LSep 17 · 02:00M. Smrcek4211871152P. Picek46611117113
LAug 23 · 00:30M. Smrcek43101171142P. Picek44127113113
LJun 21 · 01:30M. Smrcek425111791P. Picek4311219113
WMay 24 · 23:30M. Smrcek4311615113P. Picek346111341
WApr 30 · 03:29M. Smrcek4281211113P. Picek341110491
LApr 30 · 02:30M. Smrcek4371171172P. Picek45116116113
LApr 20 · 01:00M. Smrcek311110461P. Picek4171211113
WApr 10 · 03:30M. Smrcek45811132113P. Picek44116111152
M. Smrcek10
WOct 8 · 22:00M. Smrcek1.73117511113R. Bartunek2.0071111942LOct 8 · 09:00J. Jnr1.501211113M. Smrcek2.5010940LOct 8 · 08:30M. Smrcek1.9168110T. Andrle1.801111133LOct 8 · 07:00M. Smrcek2.636860A. Svoboda1.441111113LOct 8 · 06:00J. Jnr1.8011119113M. Smrcek1.91991151WOct 6 · 03:30M. Smrcek1.73121312113O. Fejtek2.0014111091WOct 6 · 02:00P. Picek1.7311711652M. Smrcek2.00711711113WOct 6 · 00:30M. Smrcek1.731011119123J. Steffan2.00126411102WOct 5 · 23:00M. Smrcek2.1014119113O. Fejtek1.671291161LOct 5 · 22:00T. Andrle1.731011115113M. Smrcek2.0012981162
P. Picek10
WOct 9 · 00:30R. Bartunek3.253350P. Picek1.331111113LOct 8 · 22:30P. Picek1.7311911642T. Andrle2.00811711113LOct 6 · 03:00P. Picek1.44791181T. Andrle2.6311117113LOct 6 · 02:00P. Picek1.7311711652M. Smrcek2.00711711113WOct 6 · 01:00P. Picek1.831111113T. Andrle1.837960LOct 6 · 00:00O. Fejtek1.5311911113P. Picek2.38811781WOct 5 · 22:30J. Steffan1.839890P. Picek1.831111113LOct 2 · 03:00P. Picek2.758560M. Placek1.401111113LOct 2 · 02:00P. Picek2.2551161142K. Darin1.57115118113LOct 2 · 01:00P. Picek3.507790O. Kucirek1.281111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.