TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Picek vs Milan Smrcek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117711117611511
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:00 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timePetr Picek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Petr Picek @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingPetr Picek above · Milan Smrcek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Petr Picek at 54.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Petr Picek 27–20 Milan Smrcek Milan Smrcek has won 20 of their 47 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 01:0054.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Picek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-20 in 47
Picek
Wrong
gap of 7 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Picek 1436 vs Smrcek 1409
Picek
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Picek 40% vs Smrcek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Picek 40% vs Smrcek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Picek +1 · Smrcek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Picek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPicek 1.727 / Smrcek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Picek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243671
Picek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 75 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it78% 57 of 73
Smrcek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 15 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePicek7wins
AwaySmrcek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePicek71.4%5 of 7
AwaySmrcek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Picek7Smrcek3n = 10Picek took 7 of 10
S2Picek4Smrcek6n = 10Smrcek took 6 of 10
S3Picek7Smrcek3n = 10Picek took 7 of 10
S4Picek4Smrcek5n = 9Smrcek took 5 of 9
S5Picek3Smrcek1n = 4Picek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPicekSmrcekP − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.0+2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPicekSmrcekBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 550 vs 247 / 50849.6%48.6%273 / 550 vs 247 / 508Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PicekPicek 1.73/Smrcek 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.1%
Picek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Petr Picek @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Smrcek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 03:30P. Picek3811311133M. Smrcek327113111
WSep 17 · 02:00P. Picek46611117113M. Smrcek4211871152
WAug 23 · 00:30P. Picek44127113113M. Smrcek43101171142
WJun 21 · 01:30P. Picek4311219113M. Smrcek425111791
LMay 24 · 23:30P. Picek346111341M. Smrcek4311615113
LApr 30 · 03:29P. Picek341110491M. Smrcek4281211113
WApr 30 · 02:30P. Picek45116116113M. Smrcek4371171172
WApr 20 · 01:00P. Picek4171211113M. Smrcek311110461
LApr 10 · 03:30P. Picek44116111152M. Smrcek45811132113
WApr 9 · 23:00P. Picek331111113M. Smrcek179170
P. Picek10
WOct 6 · 01:00P. Picek1.831111113T. Andrle1.837960LOct 6 · 00:00O. Fejtek1.5311911113P. Picek2.38811781WOct 5 · 22:30J. Steffan1.839890P. Picek1.831111113LOct 2 · 03:00P. Picek2.758560M. Placek1.401111113LOct 2 · 02:00P. Picek2.2551161142K. Darin1.57115118113LOct 2 · 01:00P. Picek3.507790O. Kucirek1.281111113WOct 2 · 00:00M. Placek1.36115871P. Picek3.0091111113WOct 1 · 22:30J. Steffan1.91139130P. Picek1.801511153LSep 30 · 02:58O. Fejtek1.53914411113P. Picek2.38111211582LSep 30 · 01:30P. Picek2.75951171M. Placek1.4011115113
M. Smrcek10
WOct 6 · 00:30M. Smrcek1.731011119123J. Steffan2.00126411102WOct 5 · 23:00M. Smrcek2.1014119113O. Fejtek1.671291161LOct 5 · 22:00T. Andrle1.731011115113M. Smrcek2.0012981162LOct 5 · 09:30M. Smrcek1.534990J. Steffan2.381111113LOct 5 · 08:30J. Didi1.8391111133M. Smrcek1.831168111WOct 5 · 07:30M. Smrcek1.83119117113T. Andrle1.8371151182WOct 5 · 06:30J. Steffan2.107950M. Smrcek1.671111113LOct 4 · 02:58M. Smrcek1.367114111V. Dolezal3.0011011133WOct 4 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.501112119113M. Stefek2.5091411162LOct 4 · 01:30R. Bartunek2.631111113M. Smrcek1.446970
Upcoming Matches
P. Picek
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M. Smrcek
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