TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Smrcek vs Ondrej Fejtek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
121413111210119––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Fejtek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Smrcek above · Ondrej Fejtek below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 92 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Ondrej Fejtek at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smrcek 2–0 Ondrej Fejtek Ondrej Fejtek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Smrcek beat Fejtek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:2554.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smrcek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Smrcek 1434 vs Fejtek 1482
Fejtek
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smrcek 60% vs Fejtek 80%
Fejtek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smrcek 60% vs Fejtek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smrcek +3 · Fejtek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Fejtek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fejtek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmrcek 1.727 / Fejtek 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fejtek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13252437
Smrcek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 23 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Fejtek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSmrcek2wins
AwayFejtek0wins
Smrcek leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSmrcekFejtekS − FBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match46.541.0+5.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmrcekFejtekBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 509 vs 45 / 8148.7%55.6%248 / 509 vs 45 / 81Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FejtekSmrcek 1.73/Fejtek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Fejtek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smrcek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 6 · 03:30M. Smrcek48121312113O. Fejtek4414111091
WOct 5 · 23:00M. Smrcek4514119113O. Fejtek381291161
M. Smrcek10
WOct 6 · 02:00P. Picek1.7311711652M. Smrcek2.00711711113WOct 6 · 00:30M. Smrcek1.731011119123J. Steffan2.00126411102WOct 5 · 23:00M. Smrcek2.1014119113O. Fejtek1.671291161LOct 5 · 22:00T. Andrle1.731011115113M. Smrcek2.0012981162LOct 5 · 09:30M. Smrcek1.534990J. Steffan2.381111113LOct 5 · 08:30J. Didi1.8391111133M. Smrcek1.831168111WOct 5 · 07:30M. Smrcek1.83119117113T. Andrle1.8371151182WOct 5 · 06:30J. Steffan2.107950M. Smrcek1.671111113LOct 4 · 02:58M. Smrcek1.367114111V. Dolezal3.0011011133WOct 4 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.501112119113M. Stefek2.5091411162
O. Fejtek10
WOct 6 · 02:30O. Fejtek1.6714118113T. Andrle2.101271181WOct 6 · 01:30J. Steffan2.1071191152O. Fejtek1.67115114113WOct 6 · 00:00O. Fejtek1.5311911113P. Picek2.38811781LOct 5 · 23:00M. Smrcek2.1014119113O. Fejtek1.671291161WOct 3 · 08:59O. Fejtek1.801111113J. Steffan1.917760WOct 3 · 08:00O. Fejtek1.616111110113V. Nohejl2.2011861262LOct 3 · 07:30J. Steffan1.73117118123O. Fejtek2.00611811102LOct 3 · 06:00O. Fejtek1.57114751J. Didi2.2571111113WOct 1 · 03:30V. Kosar1.7251191362O. Fejtek2.001191111113WOct 1 · 02:30J. Didi1.6744121172O. Fejtek2.101111108113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.