TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Smrcek vs Tomas Andrle 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6118111113––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Andrle to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smrcek above · Tomas Andrle below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 60 set 3, 11-13 · our read held Tomas Andrle at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smrcek 12–19 Tomas Andrle Milan Smrcek has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2554.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Andrle
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-19 in 31
Andrle
Correct
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smrcek 1405 vs Andrle 1490
Andrle
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smrcek 60% vs Andrle 80%
Andrle
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smrcek 50% vs Andrle 70%
Andrle
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smrcek -2 · Andrle +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Andrle) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Andrle form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmrcek 1.909 / Andrle 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Andrle)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13259289
Smrcek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 15 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Andrle1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 51 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it78% 40 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmrcek3wins
AwayAndrle7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderAndrle leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmrcek42.9%3 of 7
AwayAndrle100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smrcek7Andrle3n = 10Smrcek took 7 of 10
S2Smrcek4Andrle6n = 10Andrle took 6 of 10
S3Smrcek3Andrle7n = 10Andrle took 7 of 10
S4Smrcek1Andrle6n = 7Andrle took 6 of 7
S5Smrcek2Andrle3n = 5Andrle took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmrcekAndrleS − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.640.8−1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmrcekAndrleBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 508 vs 239 / 49148.2%48.7%245 / 508 vs 239 / 491Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AndrleSmrcek 1.91/Andrle 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Andrle · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Andrle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 08:30M. Smrcek2568110T. Andrle351111133
LOct 5 · 22:00M. Smrcek4612981162T. Andrle481011115113
WOct 5 · 07:30M. Smrcek49119117113T. Andrle4271151182
LAug 23 · 23:00M. Smrcek4511165582T. Andrle547141111113
LApr 19 · 22:30M. Smrcek4011109101T. Andrle4491211123
WApr 10 · 02:30M. Smrcek49111296113T. Andrle44910111132
LMar 26 · 00:00M. Smrcek349111041T. Andrle4011612113
LMar 22 · 23:00M. Smrcek247980T. Andrle331111113
LMar 13 · 02:00M. Smrcek51151011692T. Andrle541312711113
WMar 11 · 03:30M. Smrcek331111113T. Andrle144280
M. Smrcek10
LOct 8 · 09:00J. Jnr1.501211113M. Smrcek2.5010940LOct 8 · 07:00M. Smrcek2.636860A. Svoboda1.441111113LOct 8 · 06:00J. Jnr1.8011119113M. Smrcek1.91991151WOct 6 · 03:30M. Smrcek1.73121312113O. Fejtek2.0014111091WOct 6 · 02:00P. Picek1.7311711652M. Smrcek2.00711711113WOct 6 · 00:30M. Smrcek1.731011119123J. Steffan2.00126411102WOct 5 · 23:00M. Smrcek2.1014119113O. Fejtek1.671291161LOct 5 · 22:00T. Andrle1.731011115113M. Smrcek2.0012981162LOct 5 · 09:30M. Smrcek1.534990J. Steffan2.381111113LOct 5 · 08:30J. Didi1.8391111133M. Smrcek1.831168111
T. Andrle10
WOct 8 · 07:30T. Andrle2.1061112113J. Jnr1.671171051LOct 8 · 06:30A. Svoboda2.2571111113T. Andrle1.57116991WOct 7 · 09:30T. Andrle2.10515811113J. Jnr1.67111311572WOct 7 · 08:00J. Jnr1.53811101192T. Andrle2.38117123113WOct 7 · 07:00J. Steffan1.731177101T. Andrle2.0091111123WOct 7 · 06:30T. Andrle1.67137115113J. Didi2.10111181162WOct 6 · 03:00P. Picek1.44791181T. Andrle2.6311117113LOct 6 · 02:30O. Fejtek1.6714118113T. Andrle2.101271181LOct 6 · 01:00P. Picek1.831111113T. Andrle1.837960WOct 5 · 22:00T. Andrle1.731011115113M. Smrcek2.0012981162
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