Frantisek Briza vs Milan Smrcek 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Frantisek Briza

Home

1.53

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

114511711114911

Milan Smrcek

Away

2.38

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:51 and never touched: 58.4% is still 58.4%

Graded at full time

Frantisek Briza to win

58.4%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingFrantisek Briza above · Milan Smrcek below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 5-11

Set 3 · 7-11

Set 4 · 11-4

Set 5 · 9-11

Point 84 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Frantisek Briza at 58.4%

84 points played in total.

H2H Frantisek Briza 19–11 Milan Smrcek Milan Smrcek has won 11 of their 30 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Briza

Briza 1.53/Smrcek 2.38

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.4%

Briza · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Smrcek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 01:51

58.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533

short by 6.8pp

65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Briza

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

19-11 in 30

Briza

Wrong

gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Briza 1363 vs Smrcek 1434

Smrcek

Correct

both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Briza 20% vs Smrcek 60%

Smrcek

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Briza 30% vs Smrcek 50%

Smrcek

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Briza +1 · Smrcek +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Briza) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Smrcek: form 60%, the price implies 42%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBriza 1.533 / Smrcek 2.375

Signal prob.58% / 42%

Edge (Briza)-6.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeBriza7wins

AwaySmrcek3wins

1 of 10 to a deciderBriza leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeBriza75%6 of 8

AwaySmrcekn = 2, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Briza8Smrcek2n = 10Briza took 8 of 10

S2Briza6Smrcek4n = 10Briza took 6 of 10

S3Briza6Smrcek4n = 10Briza took 6 of 10

S4Briza2Smrcek3n = 5Smrcek took 3 of 5

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricBrizaSmrcekB − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.531.6+4.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBrizaSmrcekBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 821 vs 247 / 51244.5%48.2%365 / 821 vs 247 / 512Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13274929

Briza1.53

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite61% won 71 of 116

Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37

Up 1–0, closes it74% 50 of 68

Smrcek2.38

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog34% won 16 of 47

Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14

Frantisek Briza vs Milan Smrcek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Frantisek Briza vs Milan Smrcek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.