Vaclav Hruska Sr vs Jaroslav Strnad 1964 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Vaclav Hruska Sr

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1210711811116118

Jaroslav Strnad 1964

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:26 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%

Graded at full time

Jaroslav Strnad 1964 to win

56.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingVaclav Hruska Sr above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 11-6

Set 5 · 11-8

Point 95 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1964 at 56.5%

95 points played in total.

H2H Vaclav Hruska Sr 80–84 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Vaclav Hruska Sr has won 80 of their 164 meetings.

Last 10 · 1–9Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Strnad

Hruska Sr 2.00/Strnad 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

56.5%

Strnad · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Hruska Sr won

The pickConfirm

Sealed 08:26

56.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 1.4pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Strnad

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

80-84 in 164

Strnad

Wrong

gap of 4 in 164, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Hruska Sr 1301 vs Strnad 1450

Strnad

Wrong

both rated, 149 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Hruska Sr 80% vs Strnad 80%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Hruska Sr 60% vs Strnad 80%

Strnad

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Hruska Sr +1 · Strnad +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.

Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Strnad) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Strnad: form 80%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsHruska Sr 2.00 / Strnad 1.727

Signal prob.44% / 57%

Edge (Strnad)-1.4pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeHruska Sr1wins

AwayStrnad9wins

3 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeHruska Sr33.3%1 of 3

AwayStrnad100%7 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Hruska Sr3Strnad7n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10

S2Hruska Sr3Strnad7n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10

S3Hruska Sr4Strnad6n = 10Strnad took 6 of 10

S4Hruska Sr3Strnad5n = 8Strnad took 5 of 8

S5Hruska Sr0Strnad3n = 3Strnad took 3 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away440%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricHruska SrStrnadH − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.841.7−6.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricHruska SrStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 1018 vs 538 / 109547.2%49.1%480 / 1018 vs 538 / 1095Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13280338

Hruska Sr2.00

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog39% won 86 of 220

Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 123

Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 75

Strnad1.73

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite60% won 129 of 214

Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70

Up 1–0, closes it78% 95 of 122

Vaclav Hruska Sr vs Jaroslav Strnad 1964 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Vaclav Hruska Sr vs Jaroslav Strnad 1964 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.