TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Arkadiusz Mugowski vs Piotr Staniszewski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210911911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:12 and never touched: 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
7111210911911––
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 12–6 Piotr Staniszewski Piotr Staniszewski has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1261.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.57
short by 2.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.57 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (57%)
Mugowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Mugowski
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1382 vs Staniszewski 1291
Mugowski
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 80% vs Staniszewski 40%
Mugowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 50% vs Staniszewski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski +3 · Staniszewski +2
Mugowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Mugowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 1.57 / Staniszewski 2.11
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Mugowski)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13279921
Mugowski1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 103 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it79% 79 of 100
Staniszewski2.11
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 40 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski6wins
AwayStaniszewski4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMugowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski100%3 of 3
AwayStaniszewski57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski3Staniszewski7n = 10Staniszewski took 7 of 10
S2Mugowski5Staniszewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Mugowski8Staniszewski2n = 10Mugowski took 8 of 10
S4Mugowski5Staniszewski3n = 8Mugowski took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiStaniszewskiM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.4+2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiStaniszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime886 / 1948 vs 394 / 83845.5%47%886 / 1948 vs 394 / 838Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiMugowski 1.57/Staniszewski 2.11
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Staniszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 14:15A. Mugowski43101111113P. Staniszewski31124691
WMay 9 · 07:20A. Mugowski4291111113P. Staniszewski30116581
WMay 2 · 23:50A. Mugowski4371111143P. Staniszewski351157121
LMay 2 · 21:30A. Mugowski49781111122P. Staniszewski52111188143
WFeb 27 · 07:40A. Mugowski47119115113P. Staniszewski4591161182
WDec 14 · 04:05A. Mugowski351111133P. Staniszewski2449110
LDec 5 · 12:45A. Mugowski30101280P. Staniszewski371214113
LAug 10 · 03:50A. Mugowski33941191P. Staniszewski3811115113
WJul 27 · 13:30A. Mugowski4012511123P. Staniszewski3910118101
LJul 6 · 10:35A. Mugowski331011571P. Staniszewski4312911113
A. Mugowski10
WOct 11 · 12:40M. Sinicki2.15814100A. Mugowski1.601116123WOct 11 · 11:50W. Iwasyszyn2.6097140A. Mugowski1.441111163WOct 11 · 11:00A. Mugowski1.9514911113A. Myszewski1.751211781LOct 11 · 09:50A. Mugowski1.70104150A. Eliasz2.001211173WOct 11 · 08:05T. Piotrowski1.71810111162A. Mugowski2.00111239113LOct 11 · 07:15J. Lamperski1.7011118113A. Mugowski1.95841151WOct 11 · 05:15K. Klocek2.001114661A. Mugowski1.7081611113LOct 11 · 04:25M. Minda1.591111113A. Mugowski2.227890LOct 11 · 03:00K. Kostyk1.5581111113A. Mugowski2.30119991LOct 9 · 00:10A. Mugowski2.0055100P. Perzynski1.731111123
P. Staniszewski10
WOct 11 · 13:30A. Myszewski1.7599111162P. Staniszewski1.95111167113WOct 11 · 11:25M. Sinicki1.8591251182P. Staniszewski1.851110119113LOct 11 · 10:35A. Eliasz1.86118611143P. Staniszewski1.74511112122LOct 11 · 09:00W. Iwasyszyn1.98111139113P. Staniszewski1.7388111172LOct 11 · 08:10W. Iwasyszyn1.95117811113P. Staniszewski1.7591111682LOct 11 · 07:20A. Eliasz1.9812118113P. Staniszewski1.651091171LOct 11 · 05:15B. Wisniewski2.0511119153P. Staniszewski1.659711131LOct 11 · 04:30A. Myszewski1.721111113P. Staniszewski2.007770WOct 11 · 03:00M. Sinicki1.85118101172P. Staniszewski1.85811128113WOct 4 · 14:15K. Makowski2.0571111101P. Staniszewski1.6811138123
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